Developer interfaces that let people inspect and work with agents.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 71 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 25 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 50 to 75 horizontally, 14 to 36 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

Rob Pruzan’s estimated P(doom)

Not specified

There is not enough relevant evidence yet to estimate their view of catastrophic risk.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

If generated changes are accepted without deep review, people can lose track of how their systems work and weaken the skills needed to debug unfamiliar problems.
Answer 2

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

What could change their mind

The strongest evidence would come from agents repeatedly solving unfamiliar, difficult software problems while producing changes that remain understandable and maintainable under deep review.
Answer 3

What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move their view?

More details

Expected upside

Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.

65 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Expected harm

Manageable or localized harms are expected.

33 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 33 to 33 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

96 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 90 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

A tentative estimate from your answers; the wider range shows other plausible readings.

53 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 0 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

I think AI makes software more adaptable: users should be able to inspect an application, give an agent precise instructions, and modify it through editable source and well-designed plugin interfaces. Clear APIs, documentation, previews, and useful error feedback turn generated changes into something practical and reviewable rather than opaque magic. But the benefit depends heavily on the task. When I already understand the solution, detailed natural-language instructions can make implementation much faster. For unfamiliar, difficult problems, manual programming, debugging, and sustained thought still matter because discovering the solution is the work. Generated code also needs deep review; understanding why a change works preserves both control and technical knowledge. So the future I find useful is not agents replacing the relationship between people and software. It is agents making that relationship more direct: software becomes something users can reshape, while source access, inspectable outcomes, and occasional unaided work keep that capability grounded in understanding.

Question 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a positive impact on software work, especially by making applications easier to customize and routine implementation faster. Editable source, stable plugin APIs, good documentation, previews, and useful error feedback can let agents produce changes that users can inspect and control. The main harm I see in my own domain is loss of understanding. If generated changes are accepted without deep review, people can lose track of how their systems work and weaken the skills needed to debug unfamiliar problems. AI is strongest when I can already specify the solution precisely; it is less of a substitute when the hard part is discovering that solution. So the net benefit depends on interface design and working habits. Agents should expose reviewable outcomes rather than hide complexity, and developers should still spend time programming, debugging, and reasoning without assistance when that is what builds real understanding.

Question 3

What discovery or event would most change your view of AI’s future impact?

The strongest evidence would come from agents repeatedly solving unfamiliar, difficult software problems while producing changes that remain understandable and maintainable under deep review. That would challenge my current distinction between using AI to implement a known solution and doing the manual debugging and thought required to discover one. In the other direction, I would become less optimistic if editable source and well-designed plugin interfaces still led to opaque, brittle modifications that users could not reliably inspect or control. The key event would not be a benchmark result by itself, but sustained real-world evidence about whether agents help people understand and reshape software—or merely generate changes they become dependent on without understanding.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

Where do you land?
Explore your own AI worldview by answering a few simple questions.
Map your own worldview