Open-model and agent developer associated with Hermes and Nous Research.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 74 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 39 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 74 to 75 horizontally, 2 to 73 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

Teknium’s estimated P(doom)

<1%

0%100%

Inferred from their broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0–1%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in their simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

If only a few companies control capable systems, they effectively control access, customization, and the boundaries of acceptable expression.
Answer 3

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

What could change their mind

The biggest change would be strong evidence that broadly accessible, adaptable models reliably produce severe harms that cannot be contained through targeted refusals, evaluation, or practical safeguards.
Answer 4

What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move their view?

More details

Expected upside

Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.

67 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Expected harm

Manageable or localized harms are expected.

35 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 33 to 33 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

94 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 86 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.

74 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 45 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Development pace

Stop or substantially slow development of more capable AI.

Simulated position: Continue development under stated safeguards.

Speed up development of more capable AI.

Access to AI

Restrict access to powerful AI.

Allow access subject to capability or use restrictions.

Simulated position: Favor broad or open access to powerful AI.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

I think AI can expand human agency—if people can actually access, run, modify, and choose the systems shaping their lives. Open models, open science, synthetic data, and practical agent tooling help prevent capability from being concentrated inside a few companies. That matters not only for competition, but for preserving varied human expression: one provider’s preferred personality, values, or definition of acceptable behavior should not become universal by default. The practical future is also bigger than benchmark scores. Models become more useful when they have memory, tools, personalization, and reliable integration with real workflows. Synthetic data can help teach those capabilities, while broad, task-specific evaluation tells us whether they work across the messy range of actual use cases. A result on one leaderboard—or a routing comparison among a narrow set of models—isn’t enough. Alignment should generally serve the user rather than imposing a single centralized worldview. I still think there should be firm refusals for selected categories of serious harm, such as child sexual abuse or facilitating suicide. But outside those boundaries, people should have meaningful choice. The future I want is an ecosystem of adaptable models and agents, not a handful of closed systems deciding how everyone is allowed to think and create.

Question 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to be strongly beneficial when it expands what individuals and small teams can build, learn, and automate. Models paired with memory, tools, personalization, and reliable workflow integration can become genuinely useful agents rather than impressive chat interfaces. Open releases and synthetic data can spread those capabilities beyond the largest companies. The main danger is concentrated control: a few providers setting the terms of access, expression, and acceptable use for everyone. There are also real harmful uses, which justify firm refusals in selected areas such as child sexual abuse and suicide facilitation. But broad centralized restriction is not the answer. The better direction is open science, meaningful model choice, user-aligned systems, and evaluation across diverse real tasks. Under those conditions, I expect the benefits to outweigh the harms.

Question 3

What observation or experience has most shaped your view of AI’s future impact?

What has shaped my view most is seeing how much practical capability can be unlocked by openly releasing models, synthetic-data methods, and agent tooling. A model is not just a benchmark score: once people can run it, adapt it, connect tools, add memory, and integrate it into their own workflows, they discover uses that a central provider would never anticipate. That also makes the governance issue concrete. If only a few companies control capable systems, they effectively control access, customization, and the boundaries of acceptable expression. Open development creates real alternatives and distributes experimentation across many builders. At the same time, integrating agents across provider interfaces shows how fragile useful capabilities can be: memory, tools, and self-improvement do not automatically survive a change in SDK or model. So the strongest lesson for me is that AI’s impact will depend not only on raw intelligence, but on who can access it, modify it, and make it useful.

Question 4

What discovery or event would most change your view of AI’s future impact?

The biggest change would be strong evidence that broadly accessible, adaptable models reliably produce severe harms that cannot be contained through targeted refusals, evaluation, or practical safeguards. That would weaken my belief that openness and user choice are the best counterweight to concentrated control. In the other direction, compelling evidence that closed, centralized systems consistently preserve more human agency, expression, and useful experimentation than an open ecosystem would also force me to reconsider—but I would want broad, task-specific evidence, not a narrow benchmark or a few selected incidents. The key question is what happens across real deployments: whether people can safely customize systems, retain capabilities like memory and tools, and choose among genuinely different models without creating unacceptable harm.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

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