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Plain-language notes on P(doom), AI worldviews, and how people think about the future of AI

  1. Why polls on AI disagree

    Polls, researcher surveys, AI-led interviews and quizzes ask about AI in very different ways and get very different answers. How they compare, what changed, and what a better measure needs.

    · 16 min read

  2. Hacker News is gloomier about AI than X

    The Hacker News crowd landed far more pessimistic on our map than the X crowd two days later, yet both had the same small share of true doomers.

    · 7 min read

  3. What is P(doom)?

    P(doom) is shorthand for the chance that AI ends in catastrophe for humanity. What the number means, why estimates vary so widely, and how to read one.

    · 3 min read

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