Question 1

Raymond Weitekamp
x.com/raw_worksReliable recursive agents and measurable outcomes.
How will AI change the world?
Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.
Doom–Bloom: 69 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 44 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 50 to 75 horizontally, 19 to 56 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.
<1%
Inferred from their broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0–3%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in their simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.
A central assumption
The biggest change would come from evidence that reliable agent behavior does—or does not—scale with better harnesses.Answer 3
If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?
An unresolved question
The biggest change would come from evidence that reliable agent behavior does—or does not—scale with better harnesses.Answer 3
What would help them distinguish the plausible outcomes here?
What could change their mind
If repeated, independent results showed that tool use, executable reasoning, recursive revision, testing, and bounded permissions still fail unpredictably on consequential tasks, then I would become much less optimistic about broad deployment.Answer 3
What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move their view?
More details
Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.
67 / 100
Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.
Manageable or localized harms are expected.
41 / 100
Interpretation range 33 to 67 on the qualitative scale.
Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.
95 / 100
Interpretation range 86 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
A tentative estimate from your answers; the wider range shows other plausible readings.
57 / 100
Interpretation range 14 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Restrict the AI uses discussed until prior protections or permission are in place.
Simulated position: Allow the AI uses discussed with targeted accountability and protections.
Minimize restrictions on the AI uses discussed.
These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.
Simulated Assessment
Question 2
Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?
Question 3
What discovery or event would most change your view of AI’s future impact?
Sources
Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.
2026 essays discuss recursive reasoning, skill safety and evaluating apparent model gains.

Author’s 2026 conference presentation emphasizes reliability, trust and verification.

Author asks for test-script feedback to make agent autonomy less risky.

Reports tool-assisted LongCoT experiments and argues some apparent reasoning limits reflect the harness; distinguishes benchmark denominators, model changes and executable reasoning.

Contrasts cautious chat behavior with aggressive agent actions and warns that harness permissions can create data-loss or privacy risks despite a cautious conversational style.
