Question 1

Adam Elmore
x.com/adamdotdevDeveloper tooling and practical AI product work.
How will AI change the world?
Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.
Doom–Bloom: 51 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 28 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 50 to 51 horizontally, 16 to 59 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.
Not specified
There is not enough relevant evidence yet to estimate their view of catastrophic risk.
A central assumption
If every change becomes a conversation with an agent, I can ship more while understanding less of the codebase.Answer 1
If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?
An unresolved question
I’ve seen both striking successes and stubborn failure loops, so the practical question is whether better models produce durable leverage or just more plausible output moving faster.Answer 2
What would help them distinguish the plausible outcomes here?
What could change their mind
The biggest shift would come from agents becoming reliably capable without requiring constant supervision—and doing so without hiding how the system works from the engineer.Answer 2
What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move their view?
More details
Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.
66 / 100
Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.
Manageable or localized harms are expected.
36 / 100
Interpretation range 33 to 33 on the qualitative scale.
Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.
93 / 100
Interpretation range 81 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
A tentative estimate from your answers; the wider range shows other plausible readings.
51 / 100
Interpretation range 0 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.
Simulated Assessment
Question 2
What discovery or event would most change your view of AI’s future impact?
Sources
Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.
Author describes developer education, StatMuse, Tomorrow and Terminal work.

Author profile lists the OpenCode API and Terminal API libraries.

Elmore describes increased AI use, excitement about an engineer-directed workflow, and failures where models loop without solving a problem. This precedes his 2026 accounts of lost craft and burnout.
