Adam Elmore

Adam Elmore

x.com/adamdotdev

Developer tooling and practical AI product work.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 51 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 28 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 50 to 51 horizontally, 16 to 59 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

Adam Elmore’s estimated P(doom)

Not specified

There is not enough relevant evidence yet to estimate their view of catastrophic risk.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

If every change becomes a conversation with an agent, I can ship more while understanding less of the codebase.
Answer 1

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

An unresolved question

I’ve seen both striking successes and stubborn failure loops, so the practical question is whether better models produce durable leverage or just more plausible output moving faster.
Answer 2

What would help them distinguish the plausible outcomes here?

What could change their mind

The biggest shift would come from agents becoming reliably capable without requiring constant supervision—and doing so without hiding how the system works from the engineer.
Answer 2

What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move their view?

More details

Expected upside

Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.

66 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Expected harm

Manageable or localized harms are expected.

36 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 33 to 33 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

93 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 81 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

A tentative estimate from your answers; the wider range shows other plausible readings.

51 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 0 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

I think AI will make a lot of knowledge work dramatically faster, especially programming. Models can already replace hours of mundane work, improve files, suggest changes, and let one engineer operate across more of a system. That is real leverage, not just hype. But I don’t think faster automatically means better. The tradeoff I keep running into is distance. If every change becomes a conversation with an agent, I can ship more while understanding less of the codebase. The work can shift from making things to feeding, reviewing, and redirecting agents—sometimes through failure loops that only look productive. That can erode both engineering judgment and the satisfaction of the craft. It can also encourage an unhealthy always-on rhythm, as though idle agents or sleep represent wasted capacity. So I expect a future with much cheaper plausible output, but not cheap quality. Choosing worthwhile goals, developing taste, checking the work, and caring enough to make something good still require effort. We’ll also need to treat agents as operational actors with meaningful access: credentials, tools, and autonomy create concrete risks. The future I want keeps humans in control and uses models to remove drudgery without removing our understanding of—or connection to—the work.

Question 2

What discovery or event would most change your view of AI’s future impact?

The biggest shift would come from agents becoming reliably capable without requiring constant supervision—and doing so without hiding how the system works from the engineer. If I could delegate substantial changes, inspect clear reasoning and diffs, and consistently come away with more understanding rather than less, that would resolve much of my ambivalence. The opposite would also matter: repeated evidence that greater capability mainly creates more review burden, security exposure, compulsive agent-management, and codebases nobody really understands. I’ve seen both striking successes and stubborn failure loops, so the practical question is whether better models produce durable leverage or just more plausible output moving faster.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

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