Pertanyaan 1
Max Tegmark
x.com/tegmarkMIT professor and Future of Life Institute cofounder who favors controllable AI tools for science and calls for halting the race to superintelligence.
Bagaimana AI akan mengubah dunia?
Mendatar: pandangan Doom–Bloom yang ia ungkapkan. Ke atas: skala transformasi.
Doom–Bloom: 43 dari 100. Skala transformasi: 80 dari 100. Rentang interpretasi: 25 hingga 75 secara horizontal, 56 hingga 100 secara vertikal. Ini adalah koordinat interpretasi, bukan probabilitas kejadian.
>90%
“When I said P(doom) of over 90%, that was if we do no regulation.”
Loss of human control after superintelligence deployment
Max Tegmark vs. Dean Ball: Should We BAN Superintelligence? · Nov 2025
Asumsi utama
The biggest change would be a convincing, independently verified demonstration that systems more capable than humans can remain reliably under human control—even when operating autonomously, encountering unfamiliar situations and facing incentives to evade correction.Jawaban 3
Jika asumsi ini ternyata berbeda, bagaimana pandangannya akan berubah?
Hal yang dapat mengubah pandangan mereka
The biggest change would be a convincing, independently verified demonstration that systems more capable than humans can remain reliably under human control—even when operating autonomously, encountering unfamiliar situations and facing incentives to evade correction.Jawaban 3
Bukti apa yang akan memadai, dan ke arah mana bukti itu akan mengubah pandangannya?
Detail lebih lanjut
Manfaat besar diperkirakan akan terwujud, dengan syarat penting atau keterbatasan distribusi.
71 / 100
Rentang interpretasi 67 hingga 100 pada skala kualitatif.
Kerugian parah atau meluas merupakan bagian yang berarti dari masa depan yang diperkirakan.
74 / 100
Rentang interpretasi 67 hingga 100 pada skala kualitatif.
Pilihan manusia menentukan: masa depan AI yang sangat berbeda masih dapat dicapai secara kolektif.
90 / 100
Rentang interpretasi 75 hingga 100 pada skala kualitatif.
Interpretasi ini mempertahankan kondisi yang dinyatakannya. Manfaat dan kerugian dapat sama-sama besar. Rentang tersebut menggambarkan cara kami membaca jawaban simulasinya, bukan interval kepercayaan statistik.
Pandangan dunia serupa
Pemimpin opini dengan pandangan dunia simulasi yang paling mendekati pandangan Max Tegmark
Apa yang pernah dikatakan Max Tegmark tentang AI
Tegmark calls for safety standards and a halt to the race toward superintelligence while backing controllable AI tools for medicine and science.
“Let’s build tools not beings & keep humans in charge.”
Post on X “There has to be a red line, that nobody is allowed to do recursive self-improvement.”
Democracy Now! interview “All AI systems should be under meaningful human control. This is especially true for those that could be used in the taking of human lives.”
Future of Life Institute statement “AI has enormous potential for improving medical treatments, curing cancer and so on. This is not in the future; it’s in the past already.”
Testimony, Canadian House of Commons ethics committee “I think right now we’re closer to figuring out how to build superintelligence than we are figuring out how to control it.”
Doom Debates, debate with Dean Ball
Dikutip kata demi kata dari sumber yang ditautkan, diperiksa pada 3 Okt 2026
Penilaian Simulasi
Sumber
Artikel, wawancara, dan tulisan yang digunakan sebagai landasan bagi pengguna simulasi ini.
Tegmark’s explicitly attributed statement calls for meaningful human control, legal prohibitions on fully autonomous weapons and domestic mass surveillance, and protection beyond company policies. Adds concrete rights and military-escalation mechanisms to the superintelligence moratorium position.

Tegmark is a named coauthor of a multinational research-priority consensus. Abstract inspected: societal resilience and increasingly autonomous-agent risks receive dedicated attention. Collective authorship supports engagement with technical safety, not personal endorsement of every contributor’s forecast. Conflicting month metadata prevents assigning an exact date.

Tegmark’s own testimony calls for predeployment safety standards and controllable tools, with optimism about medical advances. Aguirre and Krueger also testify: their timelines, probabilities and proposals must remain separately attributed. Historical analogies and harm statistics are advocacy claims, not independently verified facts.

Undated institutional position checked September 21, 2026: pause frontier experiments, moratorium on superintelligence, human empowerment, democratic governance and opposition to concentrated power. Organizational context for its founder, not a newly dated personal statement or authority for assigning him every specific policy duration.

Tegmark argues for stronger AI oversight and criticizes the unregulated superintelligence race.

>90%, conditional on no regulation. Outcome: Loss of human control after superintelligence deployment. Horizon: Not specified. Conditions: Explicitly conditional on continuing without predeployment safety regulation; not an unconditional prediction that regulation will fail to materialize. At 01:17:05 Tegmark estimates greater than 90% loss of control under continued unregulated deployment. At 01:27:58 he reiterates the condition and expresses optimism about regulation.

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