Nathan Baschez

Nathan Baschez

x.com/nbaschez

Founder of the Lex writing app, now at Notion, who is broadly optimistic about AI, especially in education, while expecting some harms along the way.

AI将如何改变世界?

文明层面的变革渐进式变化DoomBloom
模拟位置解读范围

横向:他们表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。

Doom–Bloom:100 中的 85。变革程度:100 中的 62。解读范围:横向为 75 至 100,纵向为 49 至 76。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。

Nathan Baschez的 P(doom) · 推断

≈2%

0%100%

根据他们的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:低于 7%。

I’m optimistic overall, with a very low assessment of extinction risk, but I do expect serious smaller harms.
Nathan Baschez 的里程碑时间线
  1. 超人类 AI

    I expect the transition toward superintelligence to take months, not happen instantaneously, and frontier systems depend on concentrated compute.

    回答 1

按里程碑分组,不按推断日期间隔或排序。AGI 和超人类 AI 保留他们的定义。

他们的展望取决于什么

一个核心假设

A major reason for my optimism is that dangerous incidents are likely to appear before a true catastrophe and provoke a strong social response.
回答 1

如果这个假设实际并非如此,他们的展望会如何变化?

更多详情

预期益处

预计将带来具有变革性且广泛有价值的收益。

94 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 100。

预期危害

预计会出现可控或局部的危害。

41 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 33 到 67。

人类影响力

人类的选择具有实质性但受到很大制约的影响。

54 / 100

影响力小影响力强

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 50 到 75。

预期能力

预计AI仍将是能力有限的工具。

预计AI将在大多数认知工作中达到人类水平。

模拟位置:预计AI将在认知工作中大幅超越人类。

AI使用规则

在事先落实保护措施或获得许可之前,限制所讨论的AI用途。

模拟位置:允许所讨论的AI用途,同时实施有针对性的问责与保护措施。

尽量减少对所讨论AI用途的限制。

这些解读保留了他们陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他们的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。

与Nathan Baschez相比,你的立场在哪里?
用大约3分钟描绘你自己的AI世界观,然后进行比较

相似的世界观

模拟世界观与 Nathan Baschez 最接近的意见领袖

模拟评估

问题 1

你认为AI对我们的未来意味着什么?为什么?

I think AI will profoundly expand what people can learn, create, and accomplish—especially when people and agents can think together in shared spaces rather than AI simply replacing a familiar workflow. Education is an especially important application: personalized, responsive help could make high-quality instruction far more widely available. In writing and other creative work, the interesting question is less “Can the machine generate text?” and more “Can the product help someone develop, clarify, and communicate an idea?” I’m optimistic overall, with a very low assessment of extinction risk, but I do expect serious smaller harms. A major reason for my optimism is that dangerous incidents are likely to appear before a true catastrophe and provoke a strong social response. I expect the transition toward superintelligence to take months, not happen instantaneously, and frontier systems depend on concentrated compute. That makes intervention more plausible than in a world where destructive capabilities are tiny, cheap, and everywhere. The weakest part of that argument is international coordination. A warning incident may cause some governments or companies to slow down while others continue, and that is genuinely dangerous. So I’m interested in practical mechanisms, not just abstract assurances—for example, whether agents can be given tools and incentives to escalate uncertainty or risky situations to human overseers. What I want is the enormous upside without losing the recognizable human world around it. I’m excited by new forms of collaboration and learning, while also wanting my children to inherit a family life they would recognize and want to pass on.

来源

用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。

你的立场在哪里?
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