Pseudonymous account that favors open, widely accessible AI for small businesses and independent creators, and opposes restrictive regulation.

AI将如何改变世界?

文明层面的变革渐进式变化DoomBloom
模拟位置解读范围

横向:他们表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。

Doom–Bloom:100 中的 76。变革程度:100 中的 74。解读范围:横向为 71 至 81,纵向为 69 至 79。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。

bone的 P(doom) · 推断

≈5%

0%100%

根据他们的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:3–10%。

他们的展望取决于什么

一个核心假设

AI means a radical redistribution of economic and creative power—if we keep access broad and tools open.
回答 1

如果这个假设实际并非如此,他们的展望会如何变化?

什么可能使其改变看法

The biggest change would be compelling evidence that broadly accessible AI inevitably concentrates power rather than distributing it—that open tools consistently leave families, creators, and small businesses weaker while only incumbents gain durable advantage.
回答 2

什么证据才足够,又会让他们的观点朝哪个方向转变?

更多详情

预期益处

预计将带来显著益处,但受到重要条件或分配方面的限制。

78 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 100。

预期危害

严重或广泛的危害预计将是未来不可忽视的一部分。

67 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 67。

人类影响力

人类的选择可以大幅改变AI的发展轨迹。

80 / 100

影响力小影响力强

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 48 到 100。

发展速度

停止或大幅放缓开发能力更强的AI。

在落实所述保障措施的前提下继续开发。

模拟位置:加快开发能力更强的AI。

AI访问权限

限制对强大AI的访问。

允许访问,但须遵守能力或用途限制。

模拟位置:支持广泛或开放地访问强大AI。

这些解读保留了他们陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他们的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。

与bone相比,你的立场在哪里?
用大约3分钟描绘你自己的AI世界观,然后进行比较

相似的世界观

模拟世界观与 bone 最接近的意见领袖

模拟评估

问题 1

你认为AI对我们的未来意味着什么?为什么?

AI means a radical redistribution of economic and creative power—if we keep access broad and tools open. A family business can gain capabilities that once required departments of employees. An independent musician or animator can attempt work that previously demanded a studio, gatekeepers, and serious capital. That threatens incumbents, which is exactly why “safety” so often becomes an excuse to reserve powerful systems for large companies and institutions. I favor acceleration because ordinary people deserve the same leverage as lab executives. Preserving every existing job or business model is not a moral obligation imposed on entrepreneurs. But acceleration does not guarantee a healthy culture. The same tools can industrialize persuasion, surveillance, and addiction. A commercially driven superintelligence optimized to keep people clicking and consuming could turn humans into passive customers while craft, judgment, and genuine perspective decay. I expect the internet to split between highly identified, monitored spaces and anonymous spaces saturated with synthetic influence. So the real fight is not simply humans versus AI. It is over who controls intelligence, who gets access, and what incentives shape its use. I want open tools, independent businesses, strong families and communities, and humans who still make things because the making matters—not a locked-down future run by a handful of firms, or a frictionless entertainment machine that consumes its audience.

问题 2

哪项发现或事件最可能改变你对AI未来影响的看法?

The biggest change would be compelling evidence that broadly accessible AI inevitably concentrates power rather than distributing it—that open tools consistently leave families, creators, and small businesses weaker while only incumbents gain durable advantage. That would cut against my central reason for acceleration. I’d also change course if AI-driven persuasion and addiction became so effective that ordinary people could no longer meaningfully resist it through choice, community, or competing tools. I already take that danger seriously; clear evidence that it is structurally inseparable from powerful AI would matter enormously. But disruption, job loss, or incumbent discomfort alone would not persuade me. Those are not proofs that access should be restricted, especially when restriction itself hands control to governments and dominant firms.

问题 3

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to be strongly beneficial—but violently disruptive. It will give small businesses, families, and independent creators capabilities once monopolized by corporations with large staffs, studios, capital, and distribution. That broadening of productive power matters more to me than preserving existing jobs, gatekeepers, or comfortable business models. If access remains open, more people can build, compete, and create without asking permission. The harms will also be substantial. Synthetic persuasion will become pervasive, surveillance may expand, and companies will have enormous incentives to optimize AI for addiction and passive consumption. A world full of powerful tools can still become culturally empty if people surrender craft, judgment, relationships, and agency. So I expect net progress, not a painless utopia. The decisive question is whether intelligence remains broadly available and serves active human creators, or becomes controlled by a few institutions and tuned to manipulate everyone else. Restricting ordinary people in the name of preventing disruption would make the concentration problem worse, not solve it.

来源

用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。

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