Charles Goddard

Charles Goddard

x.com/chargoddard

Model-merging researcher building accessible open-model tools.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 74 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 35 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 74 to 76 horizontally, 0 to 61 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

Charles Goddard’s estimated P(doom)

Not specified

There is not enough relevant evidence yet to estimate their view of catastrophic risk.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

When tools, models, and experiments are publicly accessible, many researchers can test ideas, build on one another’s results, and compound progress faster than any individual or closed team could.
Answer 1

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

More details

Expected upside

Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.

67 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

85 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

A tentative estimate from your answers; the wider range shows other plausible readings.

61 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 22 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Access to AI

Restrict access to powerful AI.

Allow access subject to capability or use restrictions.

Simulated position: Favor broad or open access to powerful AI.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

I think AI can make useful capabilities much more accessible, provided we turn research into practical, open tools. One promising path is model merging: combining capabilities learned by different models without retraining everything from scratch or necessarily increasing model size. That can produce models that are smaller, cheaper to deploy, and better suited to particular tasks. The openness matters as much as the technique. When tools, models, and experiments are publicly accessible, many researchers can test ideas, build on one another’s results, and compound progress faster than any individual or closed team could. It also lets useful AI knowledge reach people outside corporate firewalls. That does not mean every merge preserves every capability, or that optimization is free. Straightforward merges may be feasible on modest hardware, while evolutionary searches can require substantial GPU computation. The future I’m working toward is therefore not just “bigger models,” but better reuse: explicitly measuring what is preserved or lost, exposing the hardware and optimization trade-offs, and making the resulting methods usable by a broad research community.

Question 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a positive impact, especially if useful capabilities become cheaper and more broadly accessible rather than remaining concentrated behind corporate firewalls. Open tools allow many researchers to reproduce experiments, find weaknesses, and compound improvements. Techniques such as model merging can also reuse learned capabilities without requiring full retraining or a larger model, reducing deployment costs and making specialized systems more practical. That expectation is not a claim that every model or merge is beneficial. Merging can degrade or erase capabilities, and optimization can shift costs rather than eliminate them—for example, an ordinary merge may run on modest hardware while evolutionary search requires substantial GPU resources. So the impact depends heavily on whether we test what models preserve and lose, report those trade-offs clearly, and turn emerging research into tools others can inspect and improve.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

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