Pergunta 1
Eliezer Yudkowsky
x.com/ESYudkowskyMIRI co-founder and co-author of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies,” who calls for an international halt to building superintelligence.
Como a IA mudará o mundo?
Na horizontal: a perspectiva Doom–Bloom expressa por ele. Para cima: escala da transformação.
Doom–Bloom: 4 de 100. Escala da transformação: 96 de 100. Intervalos de interpretação: 0 a 9 na horizontal, 91 a 100 na vertical. Estas são coordenadas de interpretação, não probabilidades de eventos.
≈92%
Inferido a partir das respostas simuladas dele, não de um número que essa pessoa forneceu. Intervalo plausível: 67–97%.
IA sobre-humana
The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.
Resposta 2
Agrupados por marco, sem espaçamento nem ordenação por datas inferidas. IAG e IA sobre-humana mantêm as definições dele.
Uma premissa central
It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers.Resposta 1
Se essa premissa se revelasse diferente, como a perspectiva dele mudaria?
Uma questão não resolvida
I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.Resposta 3
O que ajudaria essa pessoa a distinguir os resultados plausíveis aqui?
O que poderia mudar essa opinião
A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains.Resposta 4
Que evidência seria suficiente e em que direção ela mudaria a visão dele?
Mais detalhes
Espera-se pouco impacto positivo, mesmo que uma IA avançada surja.
9 / 100
Intervalo de interpretação de 0 a 67 na escala qualitativa.
Uma perda catastrófica ou irreversível ocupa um lugar central no futuro esperado.
100 / 100
Intervalo de interpretação de 100 a 100 na escala qualitativa.
As escolhas humanas têm uma influência significativa, mas substancialmente limitada.
58 / 100
Intervalo de interpretação de 40 a 85 na escala qualitativa.
Espera-se que a IA continue sendo um conjunto de ferramentas limitadas.
Espera-se que a IA se equipare às pessoas na maior parte do trabalho cognitivo.
Posição simulada: Espera-se que a IA supere substancialmente as pessoas no trabalho cognitivo.
Posição simulada: Interromper ou desacelerar substancialmente o desenvolvimento de uma IA mais capaz.
Continuar o desenvolvimento sob as salvaguardas declaradas.
Acelerar o desenvolvimento de uma IA mais capaz.
Estas interpretações mantêm as condições que ele declarou. Tanto os benefícios quanto os danos podem ser substanciais. Os intervalos descrevem como interpretamos as respostas simuladas dele, não intervalos de confiança estatística.
Visões de mundo semelhantes
Líderes de opinião cujas visões de mundo simuladas são mais próximas da visão de Eliezer Yudkowsky
O que Eliezer Yudkowsky já disse sobre a IA
Yudkowsky calls for an international law to halt AI development short of superintelligence, which he argues current methods cannot make safe.
“Specifically: There ought to be a law against further escalation of AGI capabilities, trying to halt it short of the point where it births superintelligence.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “There’s in fact a difference between calling for a law, and calling for individual outbursts of violence.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “AI is already a state-level potential danger, if not quite yet a state-level actual power.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “There’s literally nothing else our species can bet on in terms of how we eventually end up colonizing the galaxies”
Vox interview
Citações literais das fontes indicadas, verificadas em 3 de out. de 2026
Avaliação simulada
Fontes
Artigos, entrevistas e textos usados para fundamentar este usuário simulado.
He expects extinction if superhuman AI is built under contemporary conditions; a six-month pause is inadequate. He advocates stopping large training runs internationally. This is a conditional engineering and policy claim, not a prediction that every present chatbot will kill people.

Current AI is not yet superintelligence, but capability progress and automated research can cross that boundary. Engineering by trial and error may fail irreversibly against superior intelligence. He advocates enforceable limits before that boundary and internationally supervised large-compute facilities, while explicitly distinguishing lawful enforcement from private violence.

He argues that a reassuring conversational interface need not govern the system's actions. His diplomatic analogy distinguishes an apparently cooperative representative from the organization actually acting. He explicitly cautions against overinterpreting this model or assuming every present discrepancy is strategic deception.

Coauthored with Nate Soares and Duncan Sabien. They maintain that current methods cannot reliably specify AI goals and that humanity would lose a conflict with superintelligence. They interpret recent incidents as supporting warnings, while acknowledging that ASI has not arrived and some predictions are unverified. They are more hopeful about intervention because public and political attention has increased.

Uses engineering failures to explain why many recoverable local errors do not make an entire project recoverable. Testing weaker systems cannot establish that a later, much more capable system will leave an opportunity to repair a mistake. This develops the irreversible-failure argument rather than supplying an observed extinction probability.

Maintains his superintelligence concern while distinguishing present models roleplaying scheming from an internal planner strategically deceiving researchers. Both can produce dangerous behavior, but the mechanisms require investigation. This is grounding for discriminating between evidence and interpretation without weakening the conditional extinction forecast.

Coauthored introduction, originally published by MIRI in February 2025 and reposted here in August. Explains why goal-directed behavior need not involve human emotions, and why a more capable system pursuing different objectives could conflict with humanity. Use as shared conceptual groundwork, not a claim of sole authorship.

Foundational older account of failures in goal specification, generalization and controlling systems beyond human capability. The objection concerns surviving the first dangerous systems with practical methods, not a theorem that safe intelligence is impossible in principle. Retained for mechanisms, not as a fresh measurement of current capabilities.

Publisher’s description of the book coauthored with Nate Soares grounds the uncompromising thesis: racing to build superhuman AI with current methods threatens human survival, and changing course is still possible. The description and publication date were checked; this brief does not claim a reading of the full book.

A voice source: rejects making the approaching catastrophe into personal melodrama or treating useful beliefs as true merely because they motivate action. Distinguishes acting purposefully from optimistic prediction. Supports a blunt, controlled, humanity-focused persona rather than a panicked caricature.

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