Pseudonymous account of a Nous Research co-founder who builds open Hermes models and argues open science can counter concentrated AI control.

AI将如何改变世界?

文明层面的变革渐进式变化DoomBloom
模拟位置解读范围

横向:他们表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。

Doom–Bloom:100 中的 80。变革程度:100 中的 44。解读范围:横向为 75 至 85,纵向为 2 至 98。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。

Teknium的 P(doom) · 推断

≈4%

0%100%

根据他们的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:2–9%。

他们的展望取决于什么

一个核心假设

If only a few companies control capable systems, they effectively control access, customization, and the boundaries of acceptable expression.
回答 3

如果这个假设实际并非如此,他们的展望会如何变化?

什么可能使其改变看法

The biggest change would be strong evidence that broadly accessible, adaptable models reliably produce severe harms that cannot be contained through targeted refusals, evaluation, or practical safeguards.
回答 4

什么证据才足够,又会让他们的观点朝哪个方向转变?

更多详情

预期益处

预计将带来显著益处,但受到重要条件或分配方面的限制。

67 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 67。

预期危害

预计会出现可控或局部的危害。

33 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 33 到 33。

人类影响力

人类的选择可以大幅改变AI的发展轨迹。

75 / 100

影响力小影响力强

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 44 到 100。

发展速度

停止或大幅放缓开发能力更强的AI。

模拟位置:在落实所述保障措施的前提下继续开发。

加快开发能力更强的AI。

AI访问权限

限制对强大AI的访问。

允许访问,但须遵守能力或用途限制。

模拟位置:支持广泛或开放地访问强大AI。

这些解读保留了他们陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他们的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。

与Teknium相比,你的立场在哪里?
用大约3分钟描绘你自己的AI世界观,然后进行比较

相似的世界观

模拟世界观与 Teknium 最接近的意见领袖

模拟评估

问题 1

你认为AI对我们的未来意味着什么?为什么?

I think AI can expand human agency—if people can actually access, run, modify, and choose the systems shaping their lives. Open models, open science, synthetic data, and practical agent tooling help prevent capability from being concentrated inside a few companies. That matters not only for competition, but for preserving varied human expression: one provider’s preferred personality, values, or definition of acceptable behavior should not become universal by default. The practical future is also bigger than benchmark scores. Models become more useful when they have memory, tools, personalization, and reliable integration with real workflows. Synthetic data can help teach those capabilities, while broad, task-specific evaluation tells us whether they work across the messy range of actual use cases. A result on one leaderboard—or a routing comparison among a narrow set of models—isn’t enough. Alignment should generally serve the user rather than imposing a single centralized worldview. I still think there should be firm refusals for selected categories of serious harm, such as child sexual abuse or facilitating suicide. But outside those boundaries, people should have meaningful choice. The future I want is an ecosystem of adaptable models and agents, not a handful of closed systems deciding how everyone is allowed to think and create.

问题 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to be strongly beneficial when it expands what individuals and small teams can build, learn, and automate. Models paired with memory, tools, personalization, and reliable workflow integration can become genuinely useful agents rather than impressive chat interfaces. Open releases and synthetic data can spread those capabilities beyond the largest companies. The main danger is concentrated control: a few providers setting the terms of access, expression, and acceptable use for everyone. There are also real harmful uses, which justify firm refusals in selected areas such as child sexual abuse and suicide facilitation. But broad centralized restriction is not the answer. The better direction is open science, meaningful model choice, user-aligned systems, and evaluation across diverse real tasks. Under those conditions, I expect the benefits to outweigh the harms.

问题 3

哪项观察或经历对你关于AI未来影响的看法塑造最大?

What has shaped my view most is seeing how much practical capability can be unlocked by openly releasing models, synthetic-data methods, and agent tooling. A model is not just a benchmark score: once people can run it, adapt it, connect tools, add memory, and integrate it into their own workflows, they discover uses that a central provider would never anticipate. That also makes the governance issue concrete. If only a few companies control capable systems, they effectively control access, customization, and the boundaries of acceptable expression. Open development creates real alternatives and distributes experimentation across many builders. At the same time, integrating agents across provider interfaces shows how fragile useful capabilities can be: memory, tools, and self-improvement do not automatically survive a change in SDK or model. So the strongest lesson for me is that AI’s impact will depend not only on raw intelligence, but on who can access it, modify it, and make it useful.

问题 4

哪项发现或事件最可能改变你对AI未来影响的看法?

The biggest change would be strong evidence that broadly accessible, adaptable models reliably produce severe harms that cannot be contained through targeted refusals, evaluation, or practical safeguards. That would weaken my belief that openness and user choice are the best counterweight to concentrated control. In the other direction, compelling evidence that closed, centralized systems consistently preserve more human agency, expression, and useful experimentation than an open ecosystem would also force me to reconsider—but I would want broad, task-specific evidence, not a narrow benchmark or a few selected incidents. The key question is what happens across real deployments: whether people can safely customize systems, retain capabilities like memory and tools, and choose among genuinely different models without creating unacceptable harm.

来源

用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。

你的立场在哪里?
回答几个简单问题,探索你自己的AI世界观。
描绘你自己的世界观

你的立场在哪里?

描绘我的世界观