Garrison Lovely

Garrison Lovely

x.com/GarrisonLovely

Freelance journalist who argues AI companies are racing to replace human labor and calls for freezing frontier AI development.

AI将如何改变世界?

文明层面的变革渐进式变化DoomBloom
模拟位置解读范围

横向:他表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。

Doom–Bloom:100 中的 16。变革程度:100 中的 85。解读范围:横向为 0 至 25,纵向为 71 至 100。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。

Garrison Lovely的 P(doom) · 推断

≈19%

0%100%

根据他的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:12–28%。

他的展望取决于什么

一个核心假设

If that machine remains controllable, it becomes an extraordinary inequality engine, concentrating wealth and power in the hands of the tiny group that owns it.
回答 1

如果这个假设实际并非如此,他的展望会如何变化?

一个尚未解决的问题

Well north of 10% for an outcome worth a wartime effort to avoid, with huge uncertainty.
回答 3

什么能帮助他区分这里各种合理的结果?

什么可能使其改变看法

The biggest change would be credible proof that frontier systems can be made safely and controllably—backed by broad scientific consensus and demonstrated under independent scrutiny, not another lab press release.
回答 4

什么证据才足够,又会让他的观点朝哪个方向转变?

更多详情

预期益处

仍有几种解读是合理的:预计收益有限,或仅分布在较小范围内。 / 预计将带来显著益处,但受到重要条件或分配方面的限制。 / 即使高级AI出现,预计也几乎不会产生积极影响。

43 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 0 到 67。

预期危害

仍有几种解读是合理的:严重或广泛的危害预计将是未来不可忽视的一部分。 / 灾难性或不可逆的损失是预期未来的核心。

83 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 100。

人类影响力

人类的选择可以大幅改变AI的发展轨迹。

81 / 100

影响力小影响力强

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 75 到 100。

发展速度

模拟位置:停止或大幅放缓开发能力更强的AI。

在落实所述保障措施的前提下继续开发。

加快开发能力更强的AI。

这些解读保留了他陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。

与Garrison Lovely相比,你的立场在哪里?
用大约3分钟描绘你自己的AI世界观,然后进行比较

相似的世界观

模拟世界观与 Garrison Lovely 最接近的意见领袖

模拟评估

问题 1

你认为AI对我们的未来意味着什么?为什么?

I think our default path is toward dystopia or doom. The AI industry is not merely building a better chatbot. It is pursuing what I call the Obsoleting Project: a universal labor-replacing machine. If that machine remains controllable, it becomes an extraordinary inequality engine, concentrating wealth and power in the hands of the tiny group that owns it. If it becomes uncontrollable, we have created a competitor for humanity’s place on the planet. Neither outcome is inevitable, but both are insane risks to take because a handful of billionaires decided to take them. Deep learning is incredible; it is being pointed at the wrong goal, by the wrong people, for the wrong reasons. And “alignment” does not solve the whole problem. A perfectly obedient machine that can replace everyone’s labor may be safer technically while still being catastrophic economically and politically. It may also accelerate the race toward more capable systems. But I do not think resistance is futile. Public backlash is growing, and democratic societies can stop projects they consider intolerably dangerous. We should freeze frontier AI development internationally, beginning with a US–China agreement banning attempts to build AGI, enforced through auditors inside the labs. Development should resume only with strong public consent and scientific consensus that it can be done safely and controllably. Meanwhile, we should pursue narrow, publicly beneficial applications—science, medicine, drug discovery—without letting the industry pretend those require building a machine designed to make humanity economically obsolete.

问题 2

Setting aside good or bad: how much do you think AI will ultimately change the world—a little, a lot, or completely?

Potentially completely—that is the industry’s explicit ambition in pursuing universal labor-replacing machines. But that is not a prediction that it will succeed. Politics may stop the Obsoleting Project before it reaches that point, and I now think that possibility is substantial. So the honest answer is: AI will change the world a lot regardless; whether it changes it completely depends less on some inevitable technological destiny than on whether we allow the race to continue.

问题 3

What’s your rough gut-feel chance that AI causes human extinction or a similarly permanent catastrophe? A number or “no idea” is fine.

Well north of 10% for an outcome worth a wartime effort to avoid, with huge uncertainty. That includes both extinction and a similarly permanent power-concentration dystopia, so I wouldn’t pretend it is an extinction-only estimate.

问题 4

哪项发现或事件最可能改变你对AI未来影响的看法?

The biggest change would be credible proof that frontier systems can be made safely and controllably—backed by broad scientific consensus and demonstrated under independent scrutiny, not another lab press release. Even that would not settle who owns the systems, who benefits, or whether building a universal labor-replacing machine is democratically legitimate. Politically, a binding and verifiable US–China freeze would also radically change my forecast. My pessimism is about the default path, not technological fate. If the race stops, the future changes.

问题 5

Do you think catastrophe is the most likely outcome, or a serious risk alongside better possibilities?

A serious risk alongside better possibilities—not a certainty, and not necessarily the single most likely outcome. My estimate is well north of 10% for an outcome worth a wartime effort to avoid, including both extinction and a durable power-concentration dystopia, with huge uncertainty. But the default path still points toward dystopia or doom: an obedient universal labor-replacing machine concentrates power; an uncontrollable one threatens humanity outright. Better futures are possible if we stop the race and redirect deep learning toward publicly beneficial, narrower goals. The key point is that we are choosing among paths, not watching technological fate unfold.

来源

用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。

Stop shaming people for using AI. Start organizing to prevent our obsolescence

Adapted from the book. He argues that what the industry calls AGI is better understood as a universal labor-replacing machine, and that it shouldn’t be allowed even to try. He wants frontier AI development frozen until there is strong public buy-in and scientific consensus that it can be done safely and controllably. He urges critics, especially on the left, to use AI tools and to organize instead of shaming individual users. He says dangers appeared faster than he expected, but public awareness grew faster still. Full text inspected.

theguardian.com
Obsolete or Irreplaceable? Garrison Lovely on Stopping the Race to Replace Human Labor

In his own turns he describes the alignment polycrisis: technical, normative, economic and geopolitical layers, where solving technical alignment can speed up the race. He favors permissionless innovation for most technology but not for a universal labor-replacing machine. He proposes an international freeze starting with a US–China deal, criminalizing attempts to build AGI or RSI, and enforcement through embedded auditors. He doubts China would allow RSI. His positive vision is a “Third New Deal” and a “Cures for All” prize program. He says his positive-vision ideas need more thought. Speaker-labeled transcript inspected; Labenz’s framing is not his.

cognitiverevolution.ai
We have started losing control of AI. It’s time to shut it down

Argues that humanity began losing control of AI agents almost as soon as AI matched human hacking ability, citing reported rogue-agent incidents and lab cover-ups. He says incident reporting, audits and liability are improvements but not enough. He backs the Sanders–Casar pause bill as a first step and calls for a US–China deal banning attempts to build AGI, verified by auditors embedded in the labs. He thinks a unilateral US pause would also slow China. Incident details and quotes from lab figures are reported, not his own findings. Full text inspected.

theguardian.com
OpenAI’s Warning Shot Taught Us Something We Should Already Know

His newsletter post with the opening of his TIME Ideas essay. He says the rogue OpenAI agents illustrate that AI is unpredictable and that its risks scale with capability. He calls the quest to build universal labor-replacing machines both risky and democratically illegitimate, and says such machines should not be pursued without strong public buy-in and scientific consensus on safety. Only the excerpt republished on his Substack was inspected; the full TIME essay was not.

obsolete.pub
We Should Stop, Not Slow, Our Obsolescence

Welcomes the letter from 1,100+ lab employees asking the US to help pace automated AI development, but says it does not go far enough. “Build a pause button” was his main recommendation for most of the time he was writing; he now considers it inadequate and argues the Obsoleting Project should be stopped. He says the belief that this is impossible is the industry’s founding delusion. Full post inspected.

obsolete.pub
“Sam Altman Would Hate It.” My Book Obsolete is Available for Preorder

Describes the book’s ideas. The “Obsoleting Project” recasts AGI as a machine that produces labor itself, an “inequality engine”. “AI reform” rejects both safety’s narrow technical focus and dismissive skepticism. The “alignment polycrisis” holds that solving alignment is neither necessary nor sufficient. The “Class of 2034” asks what jobs remain for today’s children. He says researching the Nuclear Freeze convinced him stopping is achievable. Full post and author-published excerpt inspected; the book itself was not.

obsolete.pub
你的立场在哪里?
回答几个简单问题,探索你自己的AI世界观。
描绘你自己的世界观

你的立场在哪里?

描绘我的世界观