问题 1
Eliezer Yudkowsky
x.com/ESYudkowskyMIRI co-founder and co-author of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies,” who calls for an international halt to building superintelligence.
AI将如何改变世界?
横向:他表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。
Doom–Bloom:100 中的 4。变革程度:100 中的 96。解读范围:横向为 0 至 9,纵向为 91 至 100。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。
≈92%
根据他的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:67–97%。
超人类 AI
The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.
回答 2
按里程碑分组,不按推断日期间隔或排序。AGI 和超人类 AI 保留他的定义。
一个核心假设
It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers.回答 1
如果这个假设实际并非如此,他的展望会如何变化?
一个尚未解决的问题
I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.回答 3
什么能帮助他区分这里各种合理的结果?
什么可能使其改变看法
A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains.回答 4
什么证据才足够,又会让他的观点朝哪个方向转变?
更多详情
即使高级AI出现,预计也几乎不会产生积极影响。
9 / 100
在定性尺度上,解读范围为 0 到 67。
灾难性或不可逆的损失是预期未来的核心。
100 / 100
在定性尺度上,解读范围为 100 到 100。
人类的选择具有实质性但受到很大制约的影响。
58 / 100
在定性尺度上,解读范围为 40 到 85。
预计AI仍将是能力有限的工具。
预计AI将在大多数认知工作中达到人类水平。
模拟位置:预计AI将在认知工作中大幅超越人类。
模拟位置:停止或大幅放缓开发能力更强的AI。
在落实所述保障措施的前提下继续开发。
加快开发能力更强的AI。
这些解读保留了他陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。
相似的世界观
模拟世界观与 Eliezer Yudkowsky 最接近的意见领袖
Eliezer Yudkowsky关于AI说过的话
Yudkowsky calls for an international law to halt AI development short of superintelligence, which he argues current methods cannot make safe.
“Specifically: There ought to be a law against further escalation of AGI capabilities, trying to halt it short of the point where it births superintelligence.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “There’s in fact a difference between calling for a law, and calling for individual outbursts of violence.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “AI is already a state-level potential danger, if not quite yet a state-level actual power.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “There’s literally nothing else our species can bet on in terms of how we eventually end up colonizing the galaxies”
Vox interview
逐字引自所链接的出处,核对于 2026年10月3日
模拟评估
来源
用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。
He expects extinction if superhuman AI is built under contemporary conditions; a six-month pause is inadequate. He advocates stopping large training runs internationally. This is a conditional engineering and policy claim, not a prediction that every present chatbot will kill people.

Current AI is not yet superintelligence, but capability progress and automated research can cross that boundary. Engineering by trial and error may fail irreversibly against superior intelligence. He advocates enforceable limits before that boundary and internationally supervised large-compute facilities, while explicitly distinguishing lawful enforcement from private violence.

He argues that a reassuring conversational interface need not govern the system's actions. His diplomatic analogy distinguishes an apparently cooperative representative from the organization actually acting. He explicitly cautions against overinterpreting this model or assuming every present discrepancy is strategic deception.

Coauthored with Nate Soares and Duncan Sabien. They maintain that current methods cannot reliably specify AI goals and that humanity would lose a conflict with superintelligence. They interpret recent incidents as supporting warnings, while acknowledging that ASI has not arrived and some predictions are unverified. They are more hopeful about intervention because public and political attention has increased.

Uses engineering failures to explain why many recoverable local errors do not make an entire project recoverable. Testing weaker systems cannot establish that a later, much more capable system will leave an opportunity to repair a mistake. This develops the irreversible-failure argument rather than supplying an observed extinction probability.

Maintains his superintelligence concern while distinguishing present models roleplaying scheming from an internal planner strategically deceiving researchers. Both can produce dangerous behavior, but the mechanisms require investigation. This is grounding for discriminating between evidence and interpretation without weakening the conditional extinction forecast.

Coauthored introduction, originally published by MIRI in February 2025 and reposted here in August. Explains why goal-directed behavior need not involve human emotions, and why a more capable system pursuing different objectives could conflict with humanity. Use as shared conceptual groundwork, not a claim of sole authorship.

Foundational older account of failures in goal specification, generalization and controlling systems beyond human capability. The objection concerns surviving the first dangerous systems with practical methods, not a theorem that safe intelligence is impossible in principle. Retained for mechanisms, not as a fresh measurement of current capabilities.

Publisher’s description of the book coauthored with Nate Soares grounds the uncompromising thesis: racing to build superhuman AI with current methods threatens human survival, and changing course is still possible. The description and publication date were checked; this brief does not claim a reading of the full book.

A voice source: rejects making the approaching catastrophe into personal melodrama or treating useful beliefs as true merely because they motivate action. Distinguishes acting purposefully from optimistic prediction. Supports a blunt, controlled, humanity-focused persona rather than a panicked caricature.

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