Charles Goddard

Charles Goddard

x.com/chargoddard

Machine learning researcher behind the open-source model-merging toolkit MergeKit who argues open tools help researchers build on each other’s work.

AI将如何改变世界?

文明层面的变革渐进式变化DoomBloom
模拟位置解读范围

横向:他们表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。

Doom–Bloom:100 中的 79。变革程度:100 中的 37。解读范围:横向为 74 至 84,纵向为 0 至 63。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。

Charles Goddard的 P(doom) · 推断

≈1%

0%100%

根据他们的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:低于 9%。

他们的展望取决于什么

一个核心假设

When tools, models, and experiments are publicly accessible, many researchers can test ideas, build on one another’s results, and compound progress faster than any individual or closed team could.
回答 1

如果这个假设实际并非如此,他们的展望会如何变化?

更多详情

预期益处

预计将带来显著益处,但受到重要条件或分配方面的限制。

67 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 67。

人类影响力

根据你的回答得出的暂定估计;较宽的范围表示其他合理解读。

61 / 100

影响力小影响力强

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 23 到 100。

这些解读保留了他们陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他们的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。

与Charles Goddard相比,你的立场在哪里?
用大约3分钟描绘你自己的AI世界观,然后进行比较

相似的世界观

模拟世界观与 Charles Goddard 最接近的意见领袖

模拟评估

问题 1

你认为AI对我们的未来意味着什么?为什么?

I think AI can make useful capabilities much more accessible, provided we turn research into practical, open tools. One promising path is model merging: combining capabilities learned by different models without retraining everything from scratch or necessarily increasing model size. That can produce models that are smaller, cheaper to deploy, and better suited to particular tasks. The openness matters as much as the technique. When tools, models, and experiments are publicly accessible, many researchers can test ideas, build on one another’s results, and compound progress faster than any individual or closed team could. It also lets useful AI knowledge reach people outside corporate firewalls. That does not mean every merge preserves every capability, or that optimization is free. Straightforward merges may be feasible on modest hardware, while evolutionary searches can require substantial GPU computation. The future I’m working toward is therefore not just “bigger models,” but better reuse: explicitly measuring what is preserved or lost, exposing the hardware and optimization trade-offs, and making the resulting methods usable by a broad research community.

问题 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a positive impact, especially if useful capabilities become cheaper and more broadly accessible rather than remaining concentrated behind corporate firewalls. Open tools allow many researchers to reproduce experiments, find weaknesses, and compound improvements. Techniques such as model merging can also reuse learned capabilities without requiring full retraining or a larger model, reducing deployment costs and making specialized systems more practical. That expectation is not a claim that every model or merge is beneficial. Merging can degrade or erase capabilities, and optimization can shift costs rather than eliminate them—for example, an ordinary merge may run on modest hardware while evolutionary search requires substantial GPU resources. So the impact depends heavily on whether we test what models preserve and lose, report those trade-offs clearly, and turn emerging research into tools others can inspect and improve.

来源

用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。

你的立场在哪里?
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