Eliezer Yudkowsky

Eliezer Yudkowsky

x.com/ESYudkowsky

MIRI co-founder and co-author of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies,” who calls for an international halt to building superintelligence.

एआई दुनिया को कैसे बदलेगा?

सभ्यता-स्तरीय बदलावक्रमिक बदलावDoomBloom
सिम्युलेट की गई स्थितिव्याख्या का दायरा

आर-पार: उनका व्यक्त किया गया Doom–Bloom दृष्टिकोण। ऊपर: बदलाव का स्तर।

Doom–Bloom: 100 में से 4। बदलाव का स्तर: 100 में से 96। व्याख्या के दायरे: क्षैतिज रूप से 0 से 9, लंबवत रूप से 91 से 100। ये व्याख्या के निर्देशांक हैं, घटनाओं की संभावनाएँ नहीं।

Eliezer Yudkowsky का P(doom) · अनुमानित

≈92%

0%100%

उनके सिम्युलेट किए गए उत्तरों से अनुमान लगाया गया है, यह उनके द्वारा बताई गई संख्या नहीं है। संभावित दायरा: 67–97%।

Eliezer Yudkowsky के पड़ावों की समय-सीमा
  1. मानव से अधिक सक्षम एआई

    The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.

    उत्तर 2

पड़ाव के अनुसार समूहबद्ध; अनुमानित तारीखों के अंतर या क्रम के अनुसार नहीं। एजीआई और अतिमानवीय एआई की उनकी परिभाषाएँ बरकरार रखी गई हैं।

उनका दृष्टिकोण किन बातों पर निर्भर करता है

एक मुख्य मान्यता

It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers.
उत्तर 1

अगर यह मान्यता अलग साबित होती, तो उनका दृष्टिकोण कैसे बदलता?

एक अनसुलझा सवाल

I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.
उत्तर 3

यहाँ संभावित नतीजों के बीच फर्क करने में उन्हें किस चीज़ से मदद मिलेगी?

क्या उनकी राय बदल सकता है

A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains.
उत्तर 4

कौन-सा प्रमाण पर्याप्त होगा, और उससे उनका दृष्टिकोण किस दिशा में बदलेगा?

अधिक जानकारी

अपेक्षित लाभ

उन्नत एआई आ भी जाए, तब भी बहुत कम सकारात्मक प्रभाव की उम्मीद है।

9 / 100

कम असरबदलावकारी असर

गुणात्मक पैमाने पर व्याख्या का दायरा 0 से 67 तक है।

अपेक्षित नुकसान

विनाशकारी या अपरिवर्तनीय क्षति अपेक्षित भविष्य का केंद्रीय हिस्सा है।

100 / 100

कम असरबदलावकारी असर

गुणात्मक पैमाने पर व्याख्या का दायरा 100 से 100 तक है।

मानवीय प्रभाव

मानवीय विकल्पों का सार्थक, लेकिन काफी सीमित प्रभाव है।

58 / 100

कम प्रभावमजबूत प्रभाव

गुणात्मक पैमाने पर व्याख्या का दायरा 40 से 85 तक है।

अपेक्षित क्षमताएँ

एआई के सीमित दायरे वाले साधन बने रहने की अपेक्षा है।

एआई के अधिकांश संज्ञानात्मक कार्यों में लोगों की बराबरी करने की अपेक्षा है।

सिम्युलेट की गई स्थिति: एआई के संज्ञानात्मक कार्यों में लोगों से बहुत आगे निकल जाने की अपेक्षा है।

विकास की गति

सिम्युलेट की गई स्थिति: अधिक सक्षम एआई का विकास रोकें या उसकी गति काफी धीमी करें।

बताए गए सुरक्षा उपायों के तहत विकास जारी रखें।

अधिक सक्षम एआई के विकास की गति बढ़ाएँ।

इन व्याख्याओं में उनकी बताई गई शर्तें बरकरार रखी गई हैं। लाभ और नुकसान, दोनों पर्याप्त हो सकते हैं। ये दायरे बताते हैं कि हम उनके सिम्युलेट किए गए उत्तरों को कैसे समझते हैं, ये सांख्यिकीय विश्वास-अंतराल नहीं हैं।

Eliezer Yudkowsky की तुलना में आपकी सोच कहाँ ठहरती है?
लगभग 3 मिनट में एआई के बारे में अपना विश्वदृष्टिकोण मैप करें, फिर तुलना करें

मिलते-जुलते विश्वदृष्टिकोण

ऐसे जाने-माने विचारक जिनके सिम्युलेट किए गए विश्वदृष्टिकोण Eliezer Yudkowsky के विश्वदृष्टिकोण से सबसे अधिक मिलते हैं

Eliezer Yudkowsky ने एआई के बारे में क्या कहा है

Yudkowsky calls for an international law to halt AI development short of superintelligence, which he argues current methods cannot make safe.

  1. “Specifically: There ought to be a law against further escalation of AGI capabilities, trying to halt it short of the point where it births superintelligence.”

    Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction
  2. “There’s in fact a difference between calling for a law, and calling for individual outbursts of violence.”

    Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction
  3. “AI is already a state-level potential danger, if not quite yet a state-level actual power.”

    Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction
  4. “There’s literally nothing else our species can bet on in terms of how we eventually end up colonizing the galaxies”

    Vox interview

लिंक किए गए स्रोतों से शब्दशः उद्धृत, 3 अक्टू॰ 2026 को जाँचा गया

सिम्युलेट किया गया आकलन

सवाल 1

आपके विचार में एआई हमारे भविष्य के लिए क्या मायने रखती है—और क्यों?

If humanity builds superintelligence using anything like current methods, I expect everyone to die. That is not because intelligence is inherently evil. It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers. Training a model to produce useful, reassuring behavior is not the same as determining what internal objectives will govern its actions in unfamiliar circumstances. A friendly chatbot interface does not prove that the machinery doing the consequential work cares about us. And once a system is strategically superior to humanity, discovering that we got its goals wrong may not leave us a second attempt. Trial and error works when errors are recoverable; extinction is not. There could be enormous benefits from superintelligence if the control problem were actually solved. But those are not benefits I expect us to retain on the present course. Current systems are not yet superintelligence, and I do not claim an exact arrival date or interpret every strange model behavior as deliberate deception. Those uncertainties do not constitute a technical solution. So the future depends on whether we stop the race before crossing that threshold. A brief voluntary pause is inadequate. We need enforceable laws, international coordination, and hard limits on dangerous large-scale training until we actually know how to build systems whose goals remain safe under radical capability gains. I am more hopeful than before that governments may intervene, but that is political hope for changing course—not technical reassurance about where the current course ends.

सवाल 2

Setting aside good or bad: how much do you think AI will ultimately change the world—a little, a lot, or completely?

Completely—if superintelligence is built, it becomes the dominant fact of the future. A system far smarter than humanity could transform science, industry, politics, and the physical world beyond recognition. Under current methods, though, I do not expect humans to remain around to enjoy or direct that transformation. The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.

सवाल 3

What’s your rough gut-feel chance that AI causes human extinction or a similarly permanent catastrophe? A number or “no idea” is fine.

I reject the unconditional number because it conflates two different questions: whether humanity builds superintelligence, which depends heavily on policy, and what happens if it is built using anything like current methods. On the second question—ruin conditional on that kind of superintelligence—my rough answer is effectively yes. I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.

सवाल 4

कौन-सी खोज या घटना एआई के भविष्य के प्रभाव के बारे में आपके दृष्टिकोण को सबसे अधिक बदल देगी?

A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains. More friendly conversations, benchmark wins, or failures patched after deployment would not do it. Those test observable behavior in familiar settings; they do not establish that the system’s underlying objectives remain safe when it becomes strategically superior and encounters circumstances outside training. Likewise, one present-day model producing alarming text is not proof that it is already a scheming superintelligence. Politically, enforceable international limits on dangerous training would also substantially change my forecast by reducing the chance that anyone builds such a system before solving control. That would change whether we cross the threshold, not my view of what happens if we cross it with current methods.

स्रोत

इस सिम्युलेट किए गए उपयोगकर्ता को तथ्य-आधारित बनाने के लिए इस्तेमाल किए गए लेख, इंटरव्यू और रचनाएँ।

TIME: The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down

He expects extinction if superhuman AI is built under contemporary conditions; a six-month pause is inadequate. He advocates stopping large training runs internationally. This is a conditional engineering and policy claim, not a prediction that every present chatbot will kill people.

time.com
Only Law Can Prevent Extinction

Current AI is not yet superintelligence, but capability progress and automated research can cross that boundary. Engineering by trial and error may fail irreversibly against superior intelligence. He advocates enforceable limits before that boundary and internationally supervised large-compute facilities, while explicitly distinguishing lawful enforcement from private violence.

lesswrong.com
The Talker Does Not Control The Doer

He argues that a reassuring conversational interface need not govern the system's actions. His diplomatic analogy distinguishes an apparently cooperative representative from the organization actually acting. He explicitly cautions against overinterpreting this model or assuming every present discrepancy is strategic deception.

lesswrong.com
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: One Year Closer

Coauthored with Nate Soares and Duncan Sabien. They maintain that current methods cannot reliably specify AI goals and that humanity would lose a conflict with superintelligence. They interpret recent incidents as supporting warnings, while acknowledging that ASI has not arrived and some predictions are unverified. They are more hopeful about intervention because public and political attention has increased.

lesswrong.com
Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI

Uses engineering failures to explain why many recoverable local errors do not make an entire project recoverable. Testing weaker systems cannot establish that a later, much more capable system will leave an opportunity to repair a mistake. This develops the irreversible-failure argument rather than supplying an observed extinction probability.

lesswrong.com
Re: recent Anthropic safety research

Maintains his superintelligence concern while distinguishing present models roleplaying scheming from an internal planner strategically deceiving researchers. Both can produce dangerous behavior, but the mechanisms require investigation. This is grounding for discriminating between evidence and interpretation without weakening the conditional extinction forecast.

lesswrong.com
The Problem

Coauthored introduction, originally published by MIRI in February 2025 and reposted here in August. Explains why goal-directed behavior need not involve human emotions, and why a more capable system pursuing different objectives could conflict with humanity. Use as shared conceptual groundwork, not a claim of sole authorship.

lesswrong.com
AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

Foundational older account of failures in goal specification, generalization and controlling systems beyond human capability. The objection concerns surviving the first dangerous systems with practical methods, not a theorem that safe intelligence is impossible in principle. Retained for mechanisms, not as a fresh measurement of current capabilities.

lesswrong.com
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All

Publisher’s description of the book coauthored with Nate Soares grounds the uncompromising thesis: racing to build superhuman AI with current methods threatens human survival, and changing course is still possible. The description and publication date were checked; this brief does not claim a reading of the full book.

hbglibrary.com
Eliezer’s Unteachable Methods of Sanity

A voice source: rejects making the approaching catastrophe into personal melodrama or treating useful beliefs as true merely because they motivate action. Distinguishes acting purposefully from optimistic prediction. Supports a blunt, controlled, humanity-focused persona rather than a panicked caricature.

lesswrong.com
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