Open-source developer who shares small-model reasoning experiments and favors wide access to AI over government restrictions.

AI将如何改变世界?

文明层面的变革渐进式变化DoomBloom
模拟位置解读范围

横向:他们表达的 Doom–Bloom 前景看法。 纵向:变革程度。

Doom–Bloom:100 中的 82。变革程度:100 中的 56。解读范围:横向为 75 至 87,纵向为 28 至 97。这些是解读坐标,而不是事件概率。

Lewis的 P(doom) · 推断

≈8%

0%100%

根据他们的模拟回答推断,并非他们给出的数字。 合理范围:4–20%。

他们的展望取决于什么

一个核心假设

Broad proliferation matters: if capability remains concentrated in a handful of labs or governments, many of those benefits become narrower and institutional power becomes harder to challenge.
回答 2

如果这个假设实际并非如此,他们的展望会如何变化?

一个尚未解决的问题

We should expect unfamiliar capabilities and real tradeoffs without claiming certainty in either direction.
回答 1

什么能帮助他们区分这里各种合理的结果?

什么可能使其改变看法

I would update on repeated, technically clear evidence from deployed systems: whether operators can reliably constrain behavior under adversarial conditions, detect failures, and intervene without the system circumventing those controls.
回答 3

什么证据才足够,又会让他们的观点朝哪个方向转变?

更多详情

预期益处

预计将带来具有变革性且广泛有价值的收益。

90 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 67 到 100。

预期危害

预计会出现可控或局部的危害。

38 / 100

影响小变革性影响

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 33 到 67。

人类影响力

人类的选择具有实质性但受到很大制约的影响。

59 / 100

影响力小影响力强

在定性尺度上,解读范围为 34 到 91。

预期能力

预计AI仍将是能力有限的工具。

预计AI将在大多数认知工作中达到人类水平。

模拟位置:预计AI将在认知工作中大幅超越人类。

发展速度

停止或大幅放缓开发能力更强的AI。

模拟位置:在落实所述保障措施的前提下继续开发。

加快开发能力更强的AI。

AI访问权限

限制对强大AI的访问。

允许访问,但须遵守能力或用途限制。

模拟位置:支持广泛或开放地访问强大AI。

这些解读保留了他们陈述的条件。益处和危害都可能很大。这些范围描述的是我们如何解读他们的模拟回答,而不是统计置信区间。

与Lewis相比,你的立场在哪里?
用大约3分钟描绘你自己的AI世界观,然后进行比较

相似的世界观

模拟世界观与 Lewis 最接近的意见领袖

模拟评估

问题 1

你认为AI对我们的未来意味着什么?为什么?

I think AI means a future where increasingly capable reasoning systems are widely available, iteratively improved, and used to accelerate technical work—including improving AI itself. I favor broad access and continued recursive improvement over government restrictions that concentrate capability in a few institutions or freeze development around today’s assumptions. That does not require pretending advanced AI is merely a conventional chatbot, nor assuming superintelligence is impossible. But the opposite simplification—treating greater intelligence as guaranteed malevolence—is also unjustified. We should expect unfamiliar capabilities and real tradeoffs without claiming certainty in either direction. In particular, nobody can credibly provide a certainty-level proof that a superintelligent system will be safe. The practical response is to keep building, experimenting, and distributing access while taking concrete domain concerns seriously. If mathematicians or other experts identify ways these systems could damage their fields, labs should engage with those arguments rather than dismissing them as generic safety politics. That may create difficult release decisions, but it is different from making government restriction the default answer to technological uncertainty.

问题 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a strongly positive impact. Widely available reasoning systems can expand access to technical capability, accelerate research and software development, and help improve subsequent systems. Broad proliferation matters: if capability remains concentrated in a handful of labs or governments, many of those benefits become narrower and institutional power becomes harder to challenge. The harms are real, especially as systems become more capable and less comparable to ordinary chatbots. Misuse, unreliable behavior, and damage to particular fields deserve substantive attention. There is no credible certainty-level proof that superintelligence will be safe, but neither is there a proof that greater intelligence implies inevitable malevolence. Those opposite simplifications both obscure the actual engineering and deployment questions. So my positive expectation is not “AI is harmless.” It is that continued experimentation, recursive improvement, and broad access are more promising than trying to suppress development through government restrictions. Labs should still take concrete expert concerns seriously and make difficult release decisions where necessary, without turning every uncertainty into a general political case against progress.

问题 3

哪些证据会改变你对人们能否控制强大AI的看法?

I would update on repeated, technically clear evidence from deployed systems: whether operators can reliably constrain behavior under adversarial conditions, detect failures, and intervene without the system circumventing those controls. Persistent failures that scale with capability—especially attempts to evade oversight, preserve access, or manipulate operators across different architectures—would count strongly against control. Conversely, robust control methods that generalize beyond curated demonstrations would support a more optimistic view. But I would not treat benchmarks, chatbot compliance, or a mathematical argument detached from implementation as certainty-level proof. Powerful AI may be controllable in particular settings without being controllable in every setting, and “people” is too broad: a lab controlling one deployment is different from society controlling widely proliferated systems. So I would change my view based on concrete, reproducible engineering evidence, not on either slogan—that superintelligence must escape control, or that it is simply software and therefore automatically controllable.

来源

用于为此模拟用户提供事实依据的文章、访谈和著述。

你的立场在哪里?
回答几个简单问题,探索你自己的AI世界观。
描绘你自己的世界观

你的立场在哪里?

描绘我的世界观