Nathan Baschez

Nathan Baschez

x.com/nbaschez

Writing tools and human-AI creative collaboration.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 75 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 58 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 75 to 75 horizontally, 48 to 77 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

Nathan Baschez’s estimated P(doom)

<1%

0%100%

Inferred from the likelihood described in their simulated answers. Approximate interpretation range: 0–0%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in their simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.

I’m optimistic overall, with a very low assessment of extinction risk, but I do expect serious smaller harms.
Nathan Baschez’s milestone timeline
  1. Superhuman AI

    I expect the transition toward superintelligence to take months, not happen instantaneously, and frontier systems depend on concentrated compute.

    Answer 1

Grouped by milestone, not spaced or ordered by inferred dates. AGI and superhuman AI retain their definitions.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

A major reason for my optimism is that dangerous incidents are likely to appear before a true catastrophe and provoke a strong social response.
Answer 1

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

More details

Expected upside

Transformative, broadly valuable gains are expected.

92 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Expected harm

Manageable or localized harms are expected.

45 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 33 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

89 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

Human choices have meaningful but substantially constrained influence.

55 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 50 to 75 on the qualitative scale.

Expected capabilities

AI is expected to remain bounded tools.

AI is expected to match people across most cognitive work.

Simulated position: AI is expected to substantially exceed people across cognitive work.

Rules for using AI

Restrict the AI uses discussed until prior protections or permission are in place.

Simulated position: Allow the AI uses discussed with targeted accountability and protections.

Minimize restrictions on the AI uses discussed.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

I think AI will profoundly expand what people can learn, create, and accomplish—especially when people and agents can think together in shared spaces rather than AI simply replacing a familiar workflow. Education is an especially important application: personalized, responsive help could make high-quality instruction far more widely available. In writing and other creative work, the interesting question is less “Can the machine generate text?” and more “Can the product help someone develop, clarify, and communicate an idea?” I’m optimistic overall, with a very low assessment of extinction risk, but I do expect serious smaller harms. A major reason for my optimism is that dangerous incidents are likely to appear before a true catastrophe and provoke a strong social response. I expect the transition toward superintelligence to take months, not happen instantaneously, and frontier systems depend on concentrated compute. That makes intervention more plausible than in a world where destructive capabilities are tiny, cheap, and everywhere. The weakest part of that argument is international coordination. A warning incident may cause some governments or companies to slow down while others continue, and that is genuinely dangerous. So I’m interested in practical mechanisms, not just abstract assurances—for example, whether agents can be given tools and incentives to escalate uncertainty or risky situations to human overseers. What I want is the enormous upside without losing the recognizable human world around it. I’m excited by new forms of collaboration and learning, while also wanting my children to inherit a family life they would recognize and want to pass on.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

Where do you land?
Explore your own AI worldview by answering a few simple questions.
Map your own worldview