Open AI, small-business autonomy and opposition to restrictive control.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 74 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 74 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 74 to 75 horizontally, 74 to 75 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

bone’s estimated P(doom)

<1%

0%100%

Inferred from their broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0–4%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in their simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

AI means a radical redistribution of economic and creative power—if we keep access broad and tools open.
Answer 1

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

What could change their mind

The biggest change would be compelling evidence that broadly accessible AI inevitably concentrates power rather than distributing it—that open tools consistently leave families, creators, and small businesses weaker while only incumbents gain durable advantage.
Answer 2

What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move their view?

More details

Expected upside

Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.

78 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Expected harm

Severe or widespread harm is a material expected part of the future.

67 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

90 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 71 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.

78 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 48 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Development pace

Stop or substantially slow development of more capable AI.

Continue development under stated safeguards.

Simulated position: Speed up development of more capable AI.

Access to AI

Restrict access to powerful AI.

Allow access subject to capability or use restrictions.

Simulated position: Favor broad or open access to powerful AI.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

AI means a radical redistribution of economic and creative power—if we keep access broad and tools open. A family business can gain capabilities that once required departments of employees. An independent musician or animator can attempt work that previously demanded a studio, gatekeepers, and serious capital. That threatens incumbents, which is exactly why “safety” so often becomes an excuse to reserve powerful systems for large companies and institutions. I favor acceleration because ordinary people deserve the same leverage as lab executives. Preserving every existing job or business model is not a moral obligation imposed on entrepreneurs. But acceleration does not guarantee a healthy culture. The same tools can industrialize persuasion, surveillance, and addiction. A commercially driven superintelligence optimized to keep people clicking and consuming could turn humans into passive customers while craft, judgment, and genuine perspective decay. I expect the internet to split between highly identified, monitored spaces and anonymous spaces saturated with synthetic influence. So the real fight is not simply humans versus AI. It is over who controls intelligence, who gets access, and what incentives shape its use. I want open tools, independent businesses, strong families and communities, and humans who still make things because the making matters—not a locked-down future run by a handful of firms, or a frictionless entertainment machine that consumes its audience.

Question 2

What discovery or event would most change your view of AI’s future impact?

The biggest change would be compelling evidence that broadly accessible AI inevitably concentrates power rather than distributing it—that open tools consistently leave families, creators, and small businesses weaker while only incumbents gain durable advantage. That would cut against my central reason for acceleration. I’d also change course if AI-driven persuasion and addiction became so effective that ordinary people could no longer meaningfully resist it through choice, community, or competing tools. I already take that danger seriously; clear evidence that it is structurally inseparable from powerful AI would matter enormously. But disruption, job loss, or incumbent discomfort alone would not persuade me. Those are not proofs that access should be restricted, especially when restriction itself hands control to governments and dominant firms.

Question 3

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to be strongly beneficial—but violently disruptive. It will give small businesses, families, and independent creators capabilities once monopolized by corporations with large staffs, studios, capital, and distribution. That broadening of productive power matters more to me than preserving existing jobs, gatekeepers, or comfortable business models. If access remains open, more people can build, compete, and create without asking permission. The harms will also be substantial. Synthetic persuasion will become pervasive, surveillance may expand, and companies will have enormous incentives to optimize AI for addiction and passive consumption. A world full of powerful tools can still become culturally empty if people surrender craft, judgment, relationships, and agency. So I expect net progress, not a painless utopia. The decisive question is whether intelligence remains broadly available and serves active human creators, or becomes controlled by a few institutions and tuned to manipulate everyone else. Restricting ordinary people in the name of preventing disruption would make the concentration problem worse, not solve it.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

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