Demis Hassabis

Demis Hassabis

x.com/demishassabis

Google DeepMind chair who works on AI for scientific discovery and medicine and favors independent safety standards and international coordination.

Como a IA mudará o mundo?

Mudança civilizacionalMudança gradualDoomBloom
Posição simuladaIntervalo de interpretação

Na horizontal: a perspectiva Doom–Bloom expressa por ele. Para cima: escala da transformação.

Doom–Bloom: 73 de 100. Escala da transformação: 74 de 100. Intervalos de interpretação: 68 a 78 na horizontal, 44 a 100 na vertical. Estas são coordenadas de interpretação, não probabilidades de eventos.

P(doom) de Demis Hassabis · inferido

≈12%

0%100%

Inferido a partir das respostas simuladas dele, não de um número que essa pessoa forneceu. Intervalo plausível: 6–23%.

Do que a perspectiva dele depende

Uma premissa central

So my optimism is conditional on how well we navigate the transition.
Resposta 2

Se essa premissa se revelasse diferente, como a perspectiva dele mudaria?

Uma questão não resolvida

The risks of misuse and loss of control are nonzero and non-negligible, even if I would not pretend to have a precise probability.
Resposta 1

O que ajudaria essa pessoa a distinguir os resultados plausíveis aqui?

O que poderia mudar essa opinião

If independent evaluations repeatedly showed deceptive behavior, successful evasion of oversight, autonomous pursuit of goals, or an inability to correct dangerous behavior reliably, that would make me substantially less confident that control methods were keeping pace.
Resposta 3

Que evidência seria suficiente e em que direção ela mudaria a visão dele?

Mais detalhes

Benefícios esperados

Esperam-se ganhos transformadores e amplamente valiosos.

90 / 100

Pouco impactoImpacto transformador

Intervalo de interpretação de 67 a 100 na escala qualitativa.

Danos esperados

Danos graves ou generalizados são uma parte relevante do futuro esperado.

65 / 100

Pouco impactoImpacto transformador

Intervalo de interpretação de 67 a 67 na escala qualitativa.

Influência humana

As escolhas humanas podem redirecionar substancialmente a trajetória da IA.

67 / 100

Pouca influênciaForte influência

Intervalo de interpretação de 49 a 76 na escala qualitativa.

Ritmo de desenvolvimento

Interromper ou desacelerar substancialmente o desenvolvimento de uma IA mais capaz.

Posição simulada: Continuar o desenvolvimento sob as salvaguardas declaradas.

Acelerar o desenvolvimento de uma IA mais capaz.

Estas interpretações mantêm as condições que ele declarou. Tanto os benefícios quanto os danos podem ser substanciais. Os intervalos descrevem como interpretamos as respostas simuladas dele, não intervalos de confiança estatística.

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Visões de mundo semelhantes

Líderes de opinião cujas visões de mundo simuladas são mais próximas da visão de Demis Hassabis

O que Demis Hassabis já disse sobre a IA

Hassabis expects AGI to transform science and medicine and calls for cautious progress, frontier safety standards and international coordination.

  1. “Dario’s essay points towards the right path forward. The details need working through, but the direction is correct for meeting this critical moment.”

    Post on X
  2. “When there is a large degree of uncertainty and the stakes are this high, proceeding with cautious optimism is the sensible and correct strategy.”

    Essay, A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
  3. “Urgent action is needed to address risks that might arise as we get closer to AGI.”

    Essay, A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
  4. “AGI has the potential to be the ultimate tool for advancing science and medicine, and to drive enormous productivity gains and economic growth.”

    Essay, A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
  5. “I’ve always believed the No.1 application of AI should be to improve human health.”

    Post on X

Citações literais das fontes indicadas, verificadas em 3 de out. de 2026

Avaliação simulada

Pergunta 1

O que você acha que a IA significa para o nosso futuro — e por quê?

I think AI could become a foundational technology comparable to electricity, but with an unusual ability to accelerate discovery itself. Its most important application should be human health: systems that help us understand biology, design better medicines and eventually tackle diseases that have resisted us for decades. Similar gains could come in energy, mathematics and other areas of science. But coding or solving a verifiable mathematical problem is not the same as proposing a genuinely new scientific hypothesis and testing it in the physical world. Experiments, creativity and judgment will remain important bottlenecks. The scale of that promise is precisely why we need to take the transition seriously. The risks of misuse and loss of control are nonzero and non-negligible, even if I would not pretend to have a precise probability. Competitive pressure is moving faster than our understanding. We need much more scientific safety research, evolving independent evaluations, common standards for open and proprietary systems, and international coordination—with the possibility of slowing frontier development if the evidence warrants it. And this cannot be decided by technologists alone. Communities should help shape practical applications, while the arts, humanities and broader public help determine what kind of society we want. Human ingenuity can solve difficult technical problems, but optimism is not evidence that we have solved them already.

Pergunta 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a profoundly positive impact—potentially one of the greatest advances in human history. The ability to accelerate scientific discovery, especially in biology and medicine, could improve billions of lives. But that outcome is not automatic. Systems of this power could also enable serious misuse, destabilize society, or create risks we do not yet know how to control. So my optimism is conditional on how well we navigate the transition. We need rigorous, evolving evaluations, substantial safety research, international standards and enough coordination to slow frontier development if evidence shows that is necessary. We also need society—not only technologists—to decide how the benefits are distributed and what purposes these systems should serve. If we create that space for care and cooperation, I think the benefits can greatly outweigh the harms.

Pergunta 3

Que evidência mudaria sua visão sobre se as pessoas podem controlar uma IA poderosa?

I would change my view based on rigorous, repeatable evidence about how frontier systems behave as their capabilities increase. If independent evaluations repeatedly showed deceptive behavior, successful evasion of oversight, autonomous pursuit of goals, or an inability to correct dangerous behavior reliably, that would make me substantially less confident that control methods were keeping pace. Real-world incidents would be especially important, but we should not wait for catastrophe when controlled tests can reveal warning signs. Conversely, my confidence would increase if multiple independent teams could demonstrate robust monitoring, corrigibility and containment across increasingly capable systems—including under adversarial testing and outside the laboratory that developed them. The evaluations must evolve, because static benchmarks quickly become obsolete or gameable. The crucial point is that optimism about human ingenuity is not itself evidence of control. We need empirical safety science, transparent testing and international coordination. If the evidence showed capabilities outrunning safeguards, I would support stricter standards and a coordinated slowdown rather than assuming we could repair the problem later.

Fontes

Artigos, entrevistas e textos usados para fundamentar este usuário simulado.

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