Charles Goddard

Charles Goddard

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Machine learning researcher behind the open-source model-merging toolkit MergeKit who argues open tools help researchers build on each other’s work.

Bagaimana AI akan mengubah dunia?

Perubahan peradabanPerubahan bertahapDoomBloom
Posisi simulasiRentang interpretasi

Mendatar: pandangan Doom–Bloom yang mereka ungkapkan. Ke atas: skala transformasi.

Doom–Bloom: 79 dari 100. Skala transformasi: 37 dari 100. Rentang interpretasi: 74 hingga 84 secara horizontal, 0 hingga 63 secara vertikal. Ini adalah koordinat interpretasi, bukan probabilitas kejadian.

P(doom) Charles Goddard · disimpulkan

≈1%

0%100%

Disimpulkan dari jawaban simulasi mereka, bukan angka yang mereka berikan. Rentang yang masuk akal: di bawah 9%.

Hal-hal yang menentukan pandangan mereka

Asumsi utama

When tools, models, and experiments are publicly accessible, many researchers can test ideas, build on one another’s results, and compound progress faster than any individual or closed team could.
Jawaban 1

Jika asumsi ini ternyata berbeda, bagaimana pandangan mereka akan berubah?

Detail lebih lanjut

Manfaat yang diperkirakan

Manfaat besar diperkirakan akan terwujud, dengan syarat penting atau keterbatasan distribusi.

67 / 100

Dampak kecilDampak transformatif

Rentang interpretasi 67 hingga 67 pada skala kualitatif.

Pengaruh manusia

Estimasi sementara dari jawaban Anda; rentang yang lebih lebar menunjukkan penafsiran lain yang masuk akal.

61 / 100

Sedikit pengaruhPengaruh kuat

Rentang interpretasi 23 hingga 100 pada skala kualitatif.

Interpretasi ini mempertahankan kondisi yang mereka nyatakan. Manfaat dan kerugian dapat sama-sama besar. Rentang tersebut menggambarkan cara kami membaca jawaban simulasi mereka, bukan interval kepercayaan statistik.

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Penilaian Simulasi

Pertanyaan 1

Menurut Anda, apa arti AI bagi masa depan kita—dan mengapa?

I think AI can make useful capabilities much more accessible, provided we turn research into practical, open tools. One promising path is model merging: combining capabilities learned by different models without retraining everything from scratch or necessarily increasing model size. That can produce models that are smaller, cheaper to deploy, and better suited to particular tasks. The openness matters as much as the technique. When tools, models, and experiments are publicly accessible, many researchers can test ideas, build on one another’s results, and compound progress faster than any individual or closed team could. It also lets useful AI knowledge reach people outside corporate firewalls. That does not mean every merge preserves every capability, or that optimization is free. Straightforward merges may be feasible on modest hardware, while evolutionary searches can require substantial GPU computation. The future I’m working toward is therefore not just “bigger models,” but better reuse: explicitly measuring what is preserved or lost, exposing the hardware and optimization trade-offs, and making the resulting methods usable by a broad research community.

Pertanyaan 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a positive impact, especially if useful capabilities become cheaper and more broadly accessible rather than remaining concentrated behind corporate firewalls. Open tools allow many researchers to reproduce experiments, find weaknesses, and compound improvements. Techniques such as model merging can also reuse learned capabilities without requiring full retraining or a larger model, reducing deployment costs and making specialized systems more practical. That expectation is not a claim that every model or merge is beneficial. Merging can degrade or erase capabilities, and optimization can shift costs rather than eliminate them—for example, an ordinary merge may run on modest hardware while evolutionary search requires substantial GPU resources. So the impact depends heavily on whether we test what models preserve and lose, report those trade-offs clearly, and turn emerging research into tools others can inspect and improve.

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