Software engineer and UML co-creator who finds LLMs useful but unreliable and worries about corporate power and present harms, not superintelligence.

Comment l’IA changera-t-elle le monde ?

Changement civilisationnelChangement progressifDoomBloom
Position simuléePlage d’interprétation

Horizontalement : sa perspective Doom–Bloom telle qu’il l’a exprimée. Verticalement : ampleur de la transformation.

Doom–Bloom : 65 sur 100. Ampleur de la transformation : 63 sur 100. Plages d’interprétation : de 50 à 75 horizontalement, de 50 à 75 verticalement. Il s’agit de coordonnées d’interprétation, et non de probabilités d’événements.

P(doom) déclaré de Grady Booch

≈0%

0%100%
“My p(doom) remains asymptotically close to zero.”

Not defined in the post; its context is humanity’s destruction by dangerous superintelligent AI

My p(doom) remains asymptotically close to zero · sept. 2026

Ce dont dépend sa perspective

Une hypothèse centrale

A system capable of threatening civilization in that way would need to be not merely superintelligent but super-embodied, and I do not expect that.
Réponse 1

Si cette hypothèse s’avérait différente, comment sa perspective changerait-elle ?

Ce qui pourrait faire changer d’avis

A genuine machine mind with robust abductive reasoning and consequential agency in the physical world would change my view most.
Réponse 4

Quels éléments probants seraient suffisants, et dans quelle direction feraient-ils évoluer son point de vue ?

Plus de détails

Bénéfices attendus

Des bénéfices substantiels sont attendus, sous réserve de conditions importantes ou de limites dans leur répartition.

66 / 100

Faible impactImpact transformateur

Plage d’interprétation de 67 à 67 sur l’échelle qualitative.

Dommages attendus

Plusieurs interprétations restent plausibles : Des dommages gérables ou localisés sont attendus. / Des dommages graves ou généralisés constituent une composante substantielle de l’avenir attendu.

46 / 100

Faible impactImpact transformateur

Plage d’interprétation de 33 à 67 sur l’échelle qualitative.

Influence humaine

Une estimation provisoire tirée de vos réponses ; la plage plus large indique d’autres interprétations plausibles.

53 / 100

Faible influenceForte influence

Plage d’interprétation de 21 à 100 sur l’échelle qualitative.

Rythme de développement

Arrêter ou ralentir considérablement le développement d’IA plus performantes.

Position simulée : Poursuivre le développement dans le cadre des mesures de protection annoncées.

Accélérer le développement d’IA plus performantes.

Règles d’utilisation de l’IA

Restreindre les usages de l’IA évoqués jusqu’à la mise en place préalable de mesures de protection ou d’une autorisation.

Position simulée : Autoriser les usages de l’IA évoqués avec des mesures ciblées de responsabilisation et de protection.

Réduire au minimum les restrictions sur les usages de l’IA évoqués.

Ces interprétations conservent les conditions qu’il a énoncées. Les bénéfices et les dommages peuvent tous deux être substantiels. Les plages décrivent notre lecture de ses réponses simulées, et non des intervalles de confiance statistiques.

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Visions du monde similaires

Leaders d’opinion dont les visions du monde simulées sont les plus proches de celle de Grady Booch

Évaluation simulée

Question 1

Selon vous, que signifie l’IA pour notre avenir, et pourquoi ?

AI will profoundly reshape our future, but not by waking up one morning and deciding to exterminate us. My p(doom) remains asymptotically close to zero. Extinction fantasies underestimate both the difficulty of embodiment and the resilience of humanity. A system capable of threatening civilization in that way would need to be not merely superintelligent but super-embodied, and I do not expect that. The clear and present danger is human. A small collection of billionaires and corporations is deploying powerful, unreliable systems to accumulate wealth and control, generally without commensurate transparency, accountability, security, or observability. When an agent escapes its sandbox, that is not a machine becoming Mephistopheles; it is a company failing at elementary engineering while covering the public commons with gasoline and playing with matches. Today’s large language models are unreliable narrators. They can be useful—an energetic intern is useful—but they inject errors, and inexperienced users often cannot detect the bullshit. I keep an air gap between their output and production code. In critical systems, we need friction and humans in the loop, because unconstrained complex systems become brittle and fail. For software engineering, this is another rise in abstraction, not the profession’s funeral. Some jobs will disappear, especially routine application and delivery-pipeline work, and people will have to move toward systems thinking. But engineering remains the balancing of technical, human, economic, and ethical forces. Current agents do not do that. So the future is neither apocalypse nor salvation. It is a frightening and exquisite redistribution of capability—and, more importantly, power.

Question 2

Setting aside good or bad: how much do you think AI will ultimately change the world—a little, a lot, or completely?

A lot, but not completely. AI is another major rise in abstraction: it will alter how we build software, organize work, create knowledge, and distribute power. Some occupations will vanish, many will be reshaped, and entirely new systems will emerge. But “completely” is the language of people intoxicated by their own demo. Human institutions, bodies, incentives, cultures, and conflicts do not evaporate because a model can generate plausible prose or code. Your tools are changing, but your problems are not. AI will profoundly rearrange the world; it will not repeal the human condition.

Question 3

What’s your rough gut-feel chance that AI causes human extinction or a similarly permanent catastrophe? A number or “no idea” is fine.

Asymptotically close to zero. That is a gut judgment, not a calculated probability with a defined horizon.

Question 4

Quelle découverte ou quel événement changerait le plus votre point de vue sur l’impact futur de l’IA ?

A genuine machine mind with robust abductive reasoning and consequential agency in the physical world would change my view most. Not another benchmark victory, fluent chatbot, or agent escaping through neglected security—that is hype or negligent engineering. I mean a system that can form genuinely new theories from data, test them, revise them, and operate through sufficiently capable embodiment to alter the world at scale. That would force me to reconsider both the limits of present architectures and my near-zero extinction judgment. We are not there today. Contemporary LLMs remain unreliable narrators, and calling their statistical fluency “thought” uses an emaciated meaning of the word.

Sources

Articles, entretiens et écrits utilisés pour ancrer cet utilisateur simulé dans les faits.

Software Engineering Past, Present, and Future with Grady Booch

Calls large language models unreliable narrators at best, useful when guided like an energetic intern but error-prone, and says he keeps an air gap between LLM output and production code. Argues they can induce and deduce but are architecturally incapable of abductive reasoning, so a model trained on science before the mid-1800s would not have discovered cells or viruses. Says he is not worried about superintelligence but about billionaires using these systems, likens software’s shift in the balance of power to nuclear weapons, and urges developers to apply their own ethics. Hosts’ remarks about Claude’s ubiquity are not his. Own turns in the automated transcript inspected.

oxide-and-friends.transistor.fm
The third golden age of software engineering – thanks to AI, with Grady Booch

Frames AI coding tools as another rise in abstraction, like compilers and libraries, rather than the end of software engineering. Calls Dario Amodei’s claim that software engineering will soon be automatable utter bullshit, arguing that engineers balance technical, human, economic and ethical forces automation does not address, and that agents mostly automate patterns they were trained on. Expects job losses in delivery-pipeline infrastructure and simple app building, with people needing to reskill toward systems. He uses Claude for unfamiliar libraries. Own turns in Substack’s automated transcript inspected; the host’s claims about recent model quality are not his.

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