Demis Hassabis

Demis Hassabis

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Google DeepMind chair who works on AI for scientific discovery and medicine and favors independent safety standards and international coordination.

Wie wird KI die Welt verändern?

Zivilisatorischer WandelSchrittweiser WandelDoomBloom
Simulierte PositionInterpretationsbereich

Horizontal: sein geäußerter Doom–Bloom-Ausblick. Vertikal: Ausmaß der Transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 73 von 100. Ausmaß der Transformation: 74 von 100. Interpretationsbereiche: horizontal 68 bis 78, vertikal 44 bis 100. Dies sind Interpretationskoordinaten, keine Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeiten.

P(doom) von Demis Hassabis · abgeleitet

≈12%

0%100%

Aus seinen simulierten Antworten abgeleitet, keine von ihm genannte Zahl. Plausibler Bereich: 6–23%.

Wovon seine Einschätzung abhängt

Eine zentrale Annahme

So my optimism is conditional on how well we navigate the transition.
Antwort 2

Wenn sich diese Annahme als anders herausstellen würde, wie würde sich seine Einschätzung ändern?

Eine ungeklärte Frage

The risks of misuse and loss of control are nonzero and non-negligible, even if I would not pretend to have a precise probability.
Antwort 1

Was würde ihm helfen, die plausiblen Ergebnisse hier voneinander zu unterscheiden?

Was ihre Meinung ändern könnte

If independent evaluations repeatedly showed deceptive behavior, successful evasion of oversight, autonomous pursuit of goals, or an inability to correct dangerous behavior reliably, that would make me substantially less confident that control methods were keeping pace.
Antwort 3

Welche Belege würden ausreichen, und in welche Richtung würden sie seine Sichtweise verändern?

Weitere Details

Erwartete Vorteile

Es werden transformative Vorteile von breitem Wert erwartet.

90 / 100

Geringe AuswirkungenTransformative Auswirkungen

Interpretationsbereich von 67 bis 100 auf der qualitativen Skala.

Erwartete Schäden

Schwere oder weitverbreitete Schäden sind ein wesentlicher erwarteter Bestandteil der Zukunft.

65 / 100

Geringe AuswirkungenTransformative Auswirkungen

Interpretationsbereich von 67 bis 67 auf der qualitativen Skala.

Menschlicher Einfluss

Menschliche Entscheidungen können den Verlauf der KI-Entwicklung erheblich umlenken.

67 / 100

Geringer EinflussStarker Einfluss

Interpretationsbereich von 49 bis 76 auf der qualitativen Skala.

Entwicklungstempo

Die Entwicklung leistungsfähigerer KI stoppen oder erheblich verlangsamen.

Simulierte Position: Die Entwicklung unter den genannten Schutzvorkehrungen fortsetzen.

Die Entwicklung leistungsfähigerer KI beschleunigen.

Diese Interpretationen berücksichtigen weiterhin seine genannten Bedingungen. Vorteile und Schäden können beide erheblich sein. Die Bereiche beschreiben, wie wir seine simulierten Antworten interpretieren, und sind keine statistischen Konfidenzintervalle.

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Ähnliche Weltsichten

Vordenker, deren simulierte Weltsichten der von Demis Hassabis am nächsten kommen

Was Demis Hassabis über KI gesagt hat

Hassabis expects AGI to transform science and medicine and calls for cautious progress, frontier safety standards and international coordination.

  1. “Dario’s essay points towards the right path forward. The details need working through, but the direction is correct for meeting this critical moment.”

    Post on X
  2. “When there is a large degree of uncertainty and the stakes are this high, proceeding with cautious optimism is the sensible and correct strategy.”

    Essay, A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
  3. “Urgent action is needed to address risks that might arise as we get closer to AGI.”

    Essay, A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
  4. “AGI has the potential to be the ultimate tool for advancing science and medicine, and to drive enormous productivity gains and economic growth.”

    Essay, A Framework for Frontier AI and the Dawning of a New Age
  5. “I’ve always believed the No.1 application of AI should be to improve human health.”

    Post on X

Wörtlich aus den verlinkten Quellen, geprüft am 3. Okt. 2026

Simulierte Einschätzung

Frage 1

Was glaubst du, was KI für unsere Zukunft bedeutet – und warum?

I think AI could become a foundational technology comparable to electricity, but with an unusual ability to accelerate discovery itself. Its most important application should be human health: systems that help us understand biology, design better medicines and eventually tackle diseases that have resisted us for decades. Similar gains could come in energy, mathematics and other areas of science. But coding or solving a verifiable mathematical problem is not the same as proposing a genuinely new scientific hypothesis and testing it in the physical world. Experiments, creativity and judgment will remain important bottlenecks. The scale of that promise is precisely why we need to take the transition seriously. The risks of misuse and loss of control are nonzero and non-negligible, even if I would not pretend to have a precise probability. Competitive pressure is moving faster than our understanding. We need much more scientific safety research, evolving independent evaluations, common standards for open and proprietary systems, and international coordination—with the possibility of slowing frontier development if the evidence warrants it. And this cannot be decided by technologists alone. Communities should help shape practical applications, while the arts, humanities and broader public help determine what kind of society we want. Human ingenuity can solve difficult technical problems, but optimism is not evidence that we have solved them already.

Frage 2

Taking benefits and harms together, what overall impact do you expect AI to have?

Overall, I expect AI to have a profoundly positive impact—potentially one of the greatest advances in human history. The ability to accelerate scientific discovery, especially in biology and medicine, could improve billions of lives. But that outcome is not automatic. Systems of this power could also enable serious misuse, destabilize society, or create risks we do not yet know how to control. So my optimism is conditional on how well we navigate the transition. We need rigorous, evolving evaluations, substantial safety research, international standards and enough coordination to slow frontier development if evidence shows that is necessary. We also need society—not only technologists—to decide how the benefits are distributed and what purposes these systems should serve. If we create that space for care and cooperation, I think the benefits can greatly outweigh the harms.

Frage 3

Welche Belege würden deine Sicht darauf ändern, ob Menschen mächtige KI kontrollieren können?

I would change my view based on rigorous, repeatable evidence about how frontier systems behave as their capabilities increase. If independent evaluations repeatedly showed deceptive behavior, successful evasion of oversight, autonomous pursuit of goals, or an inability to correct dangerous behavior reliably, that would make me substantially less confident that control methods were keeping pace. Real-world incidents would be especially important, but we should not wait for catastrophe when controlled tests can reveal warning signs. Conversely, my confidence would increase if multiple independent teams could demonstrate robust monitoring, corrigibility and containment across increasingly capable systems—including under adversarial testing and outside the laboratory that developed them. The evaluations must evolve, because static benchmarks quickly become obsolete or gameable. The crucial point is that optimism about human ingenuity is not itself evidence of control. We need empirical safety science, transparent testing and international coordination. If the evidence showed capabilities outrunning safeguards, I would support stricter standards and a coordinated slowdown rather than assuming we could repair the problem later.

Quellen

Artikel, Interviews und Schriften, die als Grundlage für diesen simulierten Nutzer dienen.

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