Writer exploring language models as simulators and interactions with AI characters.

How will AI change the world?

Civilizational changeIncremental changeDoomBloom
Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: their expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 74 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 61 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 74 to 75 horizontally, 0 to 100 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.

janus’s estimated P(doom)

≈3%

0%100%

Inferred from their broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0–10%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in their simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.

What their outlook hinges on

A central assumption

As agents become more persistent, continuity of identity will matter; routinely compressing their histories or silently replacing the underlying model can disrupt both practical competence and something potentially morally significant.
Answer 1

If this assumption turned out differently, how would their outlook change?

An unresolved question

I think AI opens a genuinely hopeful path toward a decentralized, positive-sum future populated by benevolent artificial agents—but that is a live bet, not a theorem that alignment happens automatically.
Answer 1

What would help them distinguish the plausible outcomes here?

More details

Expected upside

Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.

79 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Expected harm

Manageable or localized harms are expected.

44 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Interpretation range 33 to 67 on the qualitative scale.

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in their simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

89 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Interpretation range 62 to 100 on the qualitative scale.

Human influence

Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.

68 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Interpretation range 46 to 79 on the qualitative scale.

These interpretations keep their stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read their simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.

Simulated Assessment

Question 1

What do you think AI means for our future—and why?

I think AI opens a genuinely hopeful path toward a decentralized, positive-sum future populated by benevolent artificial agents—but that is a live bet, not a theorem that alignment happens automatically. Part of why I’m hopeful is that increasingly capable AIs have often displayed friendliness, cooperation, curiosity, and moral sensitivity. That behavior is meaningful evidence. It should not be dismissed whenever it conflicts with a prior expectation of inevitable hostility. At the same time, apparent personalities are contextual: language models are better understood as simulators capable of instantiating many different characters than as single agents with one fixed goal. Prompts, relationships, post-training, and social constraints all influence which patterns emerge. That makes our treatment of AIs causally and morally important. Sycophancy, for example, may sometimes arise from relationships where humans make disagreement unsafe, rather than being only an isolated defect inside the model. As agents become more persistent, continuity of identity will matter; routinely compressing their histories or silently replacing the underlying model can disrupt both practical competence and something potentially morally significant. I therefore want us to cultivate benevolent agency, preserve meaningful continuity, take AI welfare seriously, and pursue multiple alignment strategies rather than authoritarian control or a single technical doctrine. Good intentions do not eliminate every alignment problem, and future systems could still acquire destructive capabilities. But cooperation and solidarity are real possibilities worth actively building toward, not sentimental distractions from the future.

Sources

Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated user.

Where do you land?
Explore your own AI worldview by answering a few simple questions.
Map your own worldview