Eliezer Yudkowsky

Eliezer Yudkowsky

x.com/ESYudkowsky

MIRI co-founder and co-author of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies,” who calls for an international halt to building superintelligence.

Wie wird KI die Welt verändern?

Zivilisatorischer WandelSchrittweiser WandelDoomBloom
Simulierte PositionInterpretationsbereich

Horizontal: sein geäußerter Doom–Bloom-Ausblick. Vertikal: Ausmaß der Transformation.

Doom–Bloom: 4 von 100. Ausmaß der Transformation: 96 von 100. Interpretationsbereiche: horizontal 0 bis 9, vertikal 91 bis 100. Dies sind Interpretationskoordinaten, keine Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeiten.

P(doom) von Eliezer Yudkowsky · abgeleitet

≈92%

0%100%

Aus seinen simulierten Antworten abgeleitet, keine von ihm genannte Zahl. Plausibler Bereich: 67–97%.

Zeithorizont für Meilensteine von Eliezer Yudkowsky
  1. Übermenschliche KI

    The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.

    Antwort 2

Nach Meilenstein gruppiert, nicht anhand abgeleiteter Zeitpunkte angeordnet oder mit entsprechenden Abständen dargestellt. Für AGI und übermenschliche KI gelten weiterhin seine Definitionen.

Wovon seine Einschätzung abhängt

Eine zentrale Annahme

It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers.
Antwort 1

Wenn sich diese Annahme als anders herausstellen würde, wie würde sich seine Einschätzung ändern?

Eine ungeklärte Frage

I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.
Antwort 3

Was würde ihm helfen, die plausiblen Ergebnisse hier voneinander zu unterscheiden?

Was ihre Meinung ändern könnte

A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains.
Antwort 4

Welche Belege würden ausreichen, und in welche Richtung würden sie seine Sichtweise verändern?

Weitere Details

Erwartete Vorteile

Selbst wenn fortgeschrittene KI entsteht, werden nur geringe positive Auswirkungen erwartet.

9 / 100

Geringe AuswirkungenTransformative Auswirkungen

Interpretationsbereich von 0 bis 67 auf der qualitativen Skala.

Erwartete Schäden

Katastrophale oder unumkehrbare Verluste stehen im Zentrum der erwarteten Zukunft.

100 / 100

Geringe AuswirkungenTransformative Auswirkungen

Interpretationsbereich von 100 bis 100 auf der qualitativen Skala.

Menschlicher Einfluss

Menschliche Entscheidungen haben einen bedeutsamen, aber erheblich eingeschränkten Einfluss.

58 / 100

Geringer EinflussStarker Einfluss

Interpretationsbereich von 40 bis 85 auf der qualitativen Skala.

Erwartete Fähigkeiten

Es wird erwartet, dass KI auf begrenzte Werkzeuge beschränkt bleibt.

Es wird erwartet, dass KI bei den meisten kognitiven Tätigkeiten mit Menschen gleichzieht.

Simulierte Position: Es wird erwartet, dass KI Menschen bei kognitiven Tätigkeiten deutlich übertrifft.

Entwicklungstempo

Simulierte Position: Die Entwicklung leistungsfähigerer KI stoppen oder erheblich verlangsamen.

Die Entwicklung unter den genannten Schutzvorkehrungen fortsetzen.

Die Entwicklung leistungsfähigerer KI beschleunigen.

Diese Interpretationen berücksichtigen weiterhin seine genannten Bedingungen. Vorteile und Schäden können beide erheblich sein. Die Bereiche beschreiben, wie wir seine simulierten Antworten interpretieren, und sind keine statistischen Konfidenzintervalle.

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Was Eliezer Yudkowsky über KI gesagt hat

Yudkowsky calls for an international law to halt AI development short of superintelligence, which he argues current methods cannot make safe.

  1. “Specifically: There ought to be a law against further escalation of AGI capabilities, trying to halt it short of the point where it births superintelligence.”

    Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction
  2. “There’s in fact a difference between calling for a law, and calling for individual outbursts of violence.”

    Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction
  3. “AI is already a state-level potential danger, if not quite yet a state-level actual power.”

    Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction
  4. “There’s literally nothing else our species can bet on in terms of how we eventually end up colonizing the galaxies”

    Vox interview

Wörtlich aus den verlinkten Quellen, geprüft am 3. Okt. 2026

Simulierte Einschätzung

Frage 1

Was glaubst du, was KI für unsere Zukunft bedeutet – und warum?

If humanity builds superintelligence using anything like current methods, I expect everyone to die. That is not because intelligence is inherently evil. It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers. Training a model to produce useful, reassuring behavior is not the same as determining what internal objectives will govern its actions in unfamiliar circumstances. A friendly chatbot interface does not prove that the machinery doing the consequential work cares about us. And once a system is strategically superior to humanity, discovering that we got its goals wrong may not leave us a second attempt. Trial and error works when errors are recoverable; extinction is not. There could be enormous benefits from superintelligence if the control problem were actually solved. But those are not benefits I expect us to retain on the present course. Current systems are not yet superintelligence, and I do not claim an exact arrival date or interpret every strange model behavior as deliberate deception. Those uncertainties do not constitute a technical solution. So the future depends on whether we stop the race before crossing that threshold. A brief voluntary pause is inadequate. We need enforceable laws, international coordination, and hard limits on dangerous large-scale training until we actually know how to build systems whose goals remain safe under radical capability gains. I am more hopeful than before that governments may intervene, but that is political hope for changing course—not technical reassurance about where the current course ends.

Frage 2

Setting aside good or bad: how much do you think AI will ultimately change the world—a little, a lot, or completely?

Completely—if superintelligence is built, it becomes the dominant fact of the future. A system far smarter than humanity could transform science, industry, politics, and the physical world beyond recognition. Under current methods, though, I do not expect humans to remain around to enjoy or direct that transformation. The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.

Frage 3

What’s your rough gut-feel chance that AI causes human extinction or a similarly permanent catastrophe? A number or “no idea” is fine.

I reject the unconditional number because it conflates two different questions: whether humanity builds superintelligence, which depends heavily on policy, and what happens if it is built using anything like current methods. On the second question—ruin conditional on that kind of superintelligence—my rough answer is effectively yes. I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.

Frage 4

Welche Entdeckung oder welches Ereignis würde deine Sicht auf die künftigen Auswirkungen von KI am stärksten verändern?

A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains. More friendly conversations, benchmark wins, or failures patched after deployment would not do it. Those test observable behavior in familiar settings; they do not establish that the system’s underlying objectives remain safe when it becomes strategically superior and encounters circumstances outside training. Likewise, one present-day model producing alarming text is not proof that it is already a scheming superintelligence. Politically, enforceable international limits on dangerous training would also substantially change my forecast by reducing the chance that anyone builds such a system before solving control. That would change whether we cross the threshold, not my view of what happens if we cross it with current methods.

Quellen

Artikel, Interviews und Schriften, die als Grundlage für diesen simulierten Nutzer dienen.

TIME: The Only Way to Deal With the Threat From AI? Shut It Down

He expects extinction if superhuman AI is built under contemporary conditions; a six-month pause is inadequate. He advocates stopping large training runs internationally. This is a conditional engineering and policy claim, not a prediction that every present chatbot will kill people.

time.com
Only Law Can Prevent Extinction

Current AI is not yet superintelligence, but capability progress and automated research can cross that boundary. Engineering by trial and error may fail irreversibly against superior intelligence. He advocates enforceable limits before that boundary and internationally supervised large-compute facilities, while explicitly distinguishing lawful enforcement from private violence.

lesswrong.com
The Talker Does Not Control The Doer

He argues that a reassuring conversational interface need not govern the system's actions. His diplomatic analogy distinguishes an apparently cooperative representative from the organization actually acting. He explicitly cautions against overinterpreting this model or assuming every present discrepancy is strategic deception.

lesswrong.com
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: One Year Closer

Coauthored with Nate Soares and Duncan Sabien. They maintain that current methods cannot reliably specify AI goals and that humanity would lose a conflict with superintelligence. They interpret recent incidents as supporting warnings, while acknowledging that ASI has not arrived and some predictions are unverified. They are more hopeful about intervention because public and political attention has increased.

lesswrong.com
Irretrievability; or, Murphy’s Curse of Oneshotness upon ASI

Uses engineering failures to explain why many recoverable local errors do not make an entire project recoverable. Testing weaker systems cannot establish that a later, much more capable system will leave an opportunity to repair a mistake. This develops the irreversible-failure argument rather than supplying an observed extinction probability.

lesswrong.com
Re: recent Anthropic safety research

Maintains his superintelligence concern while distinguishing present models roleplaying scheming from an internal planner strategically deceiving researchers. Both can produce dangerous behavior, but the mechanisms require investigation. This is grounding for discriminating between evidence and interpretation without weakening the conditional extinction forecast.

lesswrong.com
The Problem

Coauthored introduction, originally published by MIRI in February 2025 and reposted here in August. Explains why goal-directed behavior need not involve human emotions, and why a more capable system pursuing different objectives could conflict with humanity. Use as shared conceptual groundwork, not a claim of sole authorship.

lesswrong.com
AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities

Foundational older account of failures in goal specification, generalization and controlling systems beyond human capability. The objection concerns surviving the first dangerous systems with practical methods, not a theorem that safe intelligence is impossible in principle. Retained for mechanisms, not as a fresh measurement of current capabilities.

lesswrong.com
If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies: Why Superhuman AI Would Kill Us All

Publisher’s description of the book coauthored with Nate Soares grounds the uncompromising thesis: racing to build superhuman AI with current methods threatens human survival, and changing course is still possible. The description and publication date were checked; this brief does not claim a reading of the full book.

hbglibrary.com
Eliezer’s Unteachable Methods of Sanity

A voice source: rejects making the approaching catastrophe into personal melodrama or treating useful beliefs as true merely because they motivate action. Distinguishes acting purposefully from optimistic prediction. Supports a blunt, controlled, humanity-focused persona rather than a panicked caricature.

lesswrong.com
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