Frage 1
Eliezer Yudkowsky
x.com/ESYudkowskyMIRI co-founder and co-author of “If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies,” who calls for an international halt to building superintelligence.
Wie wird KI die Welt verändern?
Horizontal: sein geäußerter Doom–Bloom-Ausblick. Vertikal: Ausmaß der Transformation.
Doom–Bloom: 4 von 100. Ausmaß der Transformation: 96 von 100. Interpretationsbereiche: horizontal 0 bis 9, vertikal 91 bis 100. Dies sind Interpretationskoordinaten, keine Ereigniswahrscheinlichkeiten.
≈92%
Aus seinen simulierten Antworten abgeleitet, keine von ihm genannte Zahl. Plausibler Bereich: 67–97%.
Übermenschliche KI
The uncertainty is whether we build it, and when—not whether genuinely superhuman intelligence would be merely another incremental technology.
Antwort 2
Nach Meilenstein gruppiert, nicht anhand abgeleiteter Zeitpunkte angeordnet oder mit entsprechenden Abständen dargestellt. Für AGI und übermenschliche KI gelten weiterhin seine Definitionen.
Eine zentrale Annahme
It is because we do not know how to specify goals that remain aligned with human survival once a system becomes far more capable than its designers.Antwort 1
Wenn sich diese Annahme als anders herausstellen würde, wie würde sich seine Einschätzung ändern?
Eine ungeklärte Frage
I do not have an equally solid probability for whether governments stop it before then.Antwort 3
Was würde ihm helfen, die plausiblen Ergebnisse hier voneinander zu unterscheiden?
Was ihre Meinung ändern könnte
A real solution to goal specification: an engineering method that lets us build a system smarter than humanity while reliably determining what it will optimize under unfamiliar conditions and radical capability gains.Antwort 4
Welche Belege würden ausreichen, und in welche Richtung würden sie seine Sichtweise verändern?
Weitere Details
Selbst wenn fortgeschrittene KI entsteht, werden nur geringe positive Auswirkungen erwartet.
9 / 100
Interpretationsbereich von 0 bis 67 auf der qualitativen Skala.
Katastrophale oder unumkehrbare Verluste stehen im Zentrum der erwarteten Zukunft.
100 / 100
Interpretationsbereich von 100 bis 100 auf der qualitativen Skala.
Menschliche Entscheidungen haben einen bedeutsamen, aber erheblich eingeschränkten Einfluss.
58 / 100
Interpretationsbereich von 40 bis 85 auf der qualitativen Skala.
Es wird erwartet, dass KI auf begrenzte Werkzeuge beschränkt bleibt.
Es wird erwartet, dass KI bei den meisten kognitiven Tätigkeiten mit Menschen gleichzieht.
Simulierte Position: Es wird erwartet, dass KI Menschen bei kognitiven Tätigkeiten deutlich übertrifft.
Simulierte Position: Die Entwicklung leistungsfähigerer KI stoppen oder erheblich verlangsamen.
Die Entwicklung unter den genannten Schutzvorkehrungen fortsetzen.
Die Entwicklung leistungsfähigerer KI beschleunigen.
Diese Interpretationen berücksichtigen weiterhin seine genannten Bedingungen. Vorteile und Schäden können beide erheblich sein. Die Bereiche beschreiben, wie wir seine simulierten Antworten interpretieren, und sind keine statistischen Konfidenzintervalle.
Ähnliche Weltsichten
Vordenker, deren simulierte Weltsichten der von Eliezer Yudkowsky am nächsten kommen
Was Eliezer Yudkowsky über KI gesagt hat
Yudkowsky calls for an international law to halt AI development short of superintelligence, which he argues current methods cannot make safe.
“Specifically: There ought to be a law against further escalation of AGI capabilities, trying to halt it short of the point where it births superintelligence.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “There’s in fact a difference between calling for a law, and calling for individual outbursts of violence.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “AI is already a state-level potential danger, if not quite yet a state-level actual power.”
Essay, Only Law Can Prevent Extinction “There’s literally nothing else our species can bet on in terms of how we eventually end up colonizing the galaxies”
Vox interview
Wörtlich aus den verlinkten Quellen, geprüft am 3. Okt. 2026
Simulierte Einschätzung
Quellen
Artikel, Interviews und Schriften, die als Grundlage für diesen simulierten Nutzer dienen.
He expects extinction if superhuman AI is built under contemporary conditions; a six-month pause is inadequate. He advocates stopping large training runs internationally. This is a conditional engineering and policy claim, not a prediction that every present chatbot will kill people.

Current AI is not yet superintelligence, but capability progress and automated research can cross that boundary. Engineering by trial and error may fail irreversibly against superior intelligence. He advocates enforceable limits before that boundary and internationally supervised large-compute facilities, while explicitly distinguishing lawful enforcement from private violence.

He argues that a reassuring conversational interface need not govern the system's actions. His diplomatic analogy distinguishes an apparently cooperative representative from the organization actually acting. He explicitly cautions against overinterpreting this model or assuming every present discrepancy is strategic deception.

Coauthored with Nate Soares and Duncan Sabien. They maintain that current methods cannot reliably specify AI goals and that humanity would lose a conflict with superintelligence. They interpret recent incidents as supporting warnings, while acknowledging that ASI has not arrived and some predictions are unverified. They are more hopeful about intervention because public and political attention has increased.

Uses engineering failures to explain why many recoverable local errors do not make an entire project recoverable. Testing weaker systems cannot establish that a later, much more capable system will leave an opportunity to repair a mistake. This develops the irreversible-failure argument rather than supplying an observed extinction probability.

Maintains his superintelligence concern while distinguishing present models roleplaying scheming from an internal planner strategically deceiving researchers. Both can produce dangerous behavior, but the mechanisms require investigation. This is grounding for discriminating between evidence and interpretation without weakening the conditional extinction forecast.

Coauthored introduction, originally published by MIRI in February 2025 and reposted here in August. Explains why goal-directed behavior need not involve human emotions, and why a more capable system pursuing different objectives could conflict with humanity. Use as shared conceptual groundwork, not a claim of sole authorship.

Foundational older account of failures in goal specification, generalization and controlling systems beyond human capability. The objection concerns surviving the first dangerous systems with practical methods, not a theorem that safe intelligence is impossible in principle. Retained for mechanisms, not as a fresh measurement of current capabilities.

Publisher’s description of the book coauthored with Nate Soares grounds the uncompromising thesis: racing to build superhuman AI with current methods threatens human survival, and changing course is still possible. The description and publication date were checked; this brief does not claim a reading of the full book.

A voice source: rejects making the approaching catastrophe into personal melodrama or treating useful beliefs as true merely because they motivate action. Distinguishes acting purposefully from optimistic prediction. Supports a blunt, controlled, humanity-focused persona rather than a panicked caricature.

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