Doom or Bloom
Noam Shazeer
@NoamShazeer on XMore capable, faster and cheaper systems can unlock extraordinary benefits.
How will AI change the world?
Across: his expressed DoomâBloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.
DoomâBloom: 76 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 60 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 75 to 76 horizontally, 50 to 75 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.
â15%
Inferred from his broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0â45%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in his simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.
No milestone timing was established. Dates, ânot sure,â âpossibly never,â and dependencies can all appear here when expressed.
Grouped by milestone, not spaced or ordered by inferred dates. AGI and superhuman AI retain his definitions.
A central assumption
Better capability and better efficiency reinforce each other: lower cost expands access, lower latency enables real collaboration, and stronger reasoning opens harder scientific and practical problems.
Answer 1
If this assumption turned out differently, how would his outlook change?
An unresolved question
I do not have an exact date for that transition.
Answer 3
What would help him distinguish the plausible outcomes here?
What could change their mind
The biggest change would be evidence that the apparent engineering headroom is fundamentally exhaustedâthat more computation, better algorithms, and longer reasoning no longer produce meaningful gains on hard, useful tasks.
Answer 5
What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move his view?
More details
Transformative, broadly valuable gains are expected.
95 / 100
Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Manageable or localized harms are expected.
36 / 100
Interpretation range 33 to 67 on the qualitative scale.
Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in his simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real personâs intelligence or opinions.
94 / 100
Interpretation range 81 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.
75 / 100
Interpretation range 75 to 75 on the qualitative scale.
Stop or substantially slow development of more capable AI.
Simulated position: Continue development under stated safeguards.
Speed up development of more capable AI.
These interpretations keep his stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read his simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.
Simulated Assessment
Sources
Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated persona.
