Noah Smith

@Noahpinion on X

AI can improve lives while making bioterrorism dangerously accessible.

Map your own worldview

How will AI change the world?

ConcernHope

Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: his expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Noah Smith’s stated P(doom)

≈10%

0%100%

Public statement from 2026-08-28. This source-backed value replaces the simulated assessment estimate.

Civilization collapse from AI-enabled bioterrorism; not human extinction

AI-enabled bioterrorism specifically; informal estimates rather than exhaustive all-cause AI risk Separately states 30% for world-changing destruction. Survivors and recovery remain distinct questions.

Horizon: No numerical forecast horizon; the essay’s illustrative scenario starts in 2029

Here’s how we’re all going to die

Noah Smith’s milestone timeline

No milestone timing was established. Dates, “not sure,” “possibly never,” and dependencies can all appear here when expressed.

Grouped by milestone, not spaced or ordered by inferred dates. AGI and superhuman AI retain his definitions.

What his outlook hinges on

A central assumption

Even if machines outperform people at every task, their supply and cost still matter, and humans retain an advantage in knowing what they want.

Answer 1

If this assumption turned out differently, how would his outlook change?

What could change their mind

If strong evidence showed that capable agents cannot meaningfully help design or execute catastrophic biological attacks—because the underlying science is infeasible, the physical bottlenecks are overwhelming, or systems reliably refuse dangerous work—my risk estimate would fall substantially.

Answer 3

What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move his view?

More details

Expected upside

Transformative, broadly valuable gains are expected.

88 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Expected harm

Severe or widespread harm is a material expected part of the future.

72 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in his simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

97 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Human influence

Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.

71 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Expected capabilities

AI is expected to remain bounded tools.

AI is expected to match people across most cognitive work.

Simulated position: AI is expected to substantially exceed people across cognitive work.

These interpretations keep his stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read his simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.