Daniel Kokotajlo

@DKokotajlo on X

AI research automation could transform the world quickly; transparent international restraint can change the outcome.

Map your own worldview

How will AI change the world?

ConcernHope

Simulated positionInterpretation range

Across: his expressed Doom–Bloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.

Daniel Kokotajlo’s estimated P(doom)

≈67%

0%100%

Inferred from the likelihood described in his simulated answers. Approximate interpretation range: 50–90%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in his simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.

Daniel Kokotajlo’s milestone timeline

No milestone timing was established. Dates, “not sure,” “possibly never,” and dependencies can all appear here when expressed.

Grouped by milestone, not spaced or ordered by inferred dates. AGI and superhuman AI retain his definitions.

What his outlook hinges on

A central assumption

Once systems can substantially improve the process that builds their successors, competitive pressure encourages companies and states to accelerate, delegate more, and accept weaker evidence of safety.

Answer 2

If this assumption turned out differently, how would his outlook change?

An unresolved question

My current median for fully automated AI research is around the end of 2028, with substantial uncertainty.

Answer 1

What would help him distinguish the plausible outcomes here?

What could change their mind

If capable agents could perform most coding and research tasks, yet repeated real-world attempts showed that progress remained slow because experiments, research taste, data, chips, or coordination were stubborn bottlenecks, I would become substantially less worried about an imminent intelligence explosion.

Answer 3

What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move his view?

More details

Expected upside

Several readings remain plausible: Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits. / Limited or narrowly distributed gains are expected. / Little positive impact is expected even if advanced AI arrives. / Transformative, broadly valuable gains are expected.

51 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Expected harm

Catastrophic or irreversible loss is central to the expected future.

100 / 100

Little impactTransformative impact

Demonstrated reasoning

Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in his simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real person’s intelligence or opinions.

96 / 100

Little demonstratedWell developed

Human influence

Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.

75 / 100

Little influenceStrong influence

Expected capabilities

AI is expected to remain bounded tools.

AI is expected to match people across most cognitive work.

Simulated position: AI is expected to substantially exceed people across cognitive work.

These interpretations keep his stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read his simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.