Doom or Bloom
Barack Obama
@BarackObama on XPublic oversight and collective choices determine who benefits.
How will AI change the world?
Across: his expressed DoomāBloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.
DoomāBloom: 53 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 64 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 50 to 75 horizontally, 50 to 75 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.
ā18%
Inferred from his broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0ā65%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in his simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.
Work & institutions
Over the next five to ten years, we are likely to see real advances in medicine, education and scientific research alongside serious disruption to work, information and childhood.
Answer 2Science & daily life
Over the next five to ten years, we are likely to see real advances in medicine, education and scientific research alongside serious disruption to work, information and childhood.
Answer 2
Grouped by milestone, not spaced or ordered by inferred dates. AGI and superhuman AI retain his definitions.
A central assumption
If we allow a handful of companies to set the pace and the rules, I expect the harms and benefits to be distributed badly.
Answer 2
If this assumption turned out differently, how would his outlook change?
An unresolved question
I expect AIās overall impact to be profoundly transformative, but I donāt think the final balance is predetermined.
Answer 2
What would help him distinguish the plausible outcomes here?
What could change their mind
The event that would most change my view would be clear evidence that AIās benefits or dangers are largely beyond meaningful human control.
Answer 4
What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move his view?
More details
Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.
70 / 100
Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.
Severe or widespread harm is a material expected part of the future.
65 / 100
Interpretation range 67 to 67 on the qualitative scale.
Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in his simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real personās intelligence or opinions.
94 / 100
Interpretation range 81 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Human choices can substantially redirect the AI trajectory.
82 / 100
Interpretation range 75 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Restrict the AI uses discussed until prior protections or permission are in place.
Simulated position: Allow the AI uses discussed with targeted accountability and protections.
Minimize restrictions on the AI uses discussed.
These interpretations keep his stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read his simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.
Simulated Assessment
Sources
Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated persona.
Obama on AI, free speech and the future of the internet
Barack Obama joined Nilay Patel on Decoder to discuss President Joe Bidenās executive order on AI, tech regulation, and more.
theverge.com
President Obama calls for public oversight of AI, warns of disruption ahead
Two Obama Leaders asked President Obama questions about AI. His answers changed how they see their work and what they do next.
obama.org
