Doom or Bloom
Andrew Ng
@AndrewYNg on XUseful applications and better engineering can deliver enormous benefits.
How will AI change the world?
Across: his expressed DoomâBloom outlook. Up: scale of transformation.
DoomâBloom: 75 out of 100. Scale of transformation: 48 out of 100. Interpretation ranges: 75 to 75 horizontally, 24 to 51 vertically. These are interpretation coordinates, not event probabilities.
â7%
Inferred from his broader worldview and priorities. Approximate interpretation range: 0â25%. Applies to the outcome and conditions in his simulated answers; this is an inferred percentage.
No milestone timing was established. Dates, ânot sure,â âpossibly never,â and dependencies can all appear here when expressed.
Grouped by milestone, not spaced or ordered by inferred dates. AGI and superhuman AI retain his definitions.
A central assumption
AI lowers the cost of implementation, so small teamsâand even individualsâcan tackle problems that once required much larger organizations.
Answer 1
If this assumption turned out differently, how would his outlook change?
What could change their mind
The biggest change would be strong, repeated evidence that AI systems cause catastrophic harm that ordinary engineering controls cannot containâdespite serious isolation, monitoring, testing, and accountable operation.
Answer 2
What evidence would be enough, and in which direction would it move his view?
More details
Substantial benefits are expected, with important conditions or distribution limits.
79 / 100
Interpretation range 67 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Manageable or localized harms are expected.
33 / 100
Interpretation range 33 to 33 on the qualitative scale.
Reasoning, consideration of alternatives, and handling of uncertainty in his simulated answers. This describes the simulated answers, not the real personâs intelligence or opinions.
95 / 100
Interpretation range 86 to 100 on the qualitative scale.
Human choices have meaningful but substantially constrained influence.
62 / 100
Interpretation range 41 to 84 on the qualitative scale.
Stop or substantially slow development of more capable AI.
Simulated position: Continue development under stated safeguards.
Speed up development of more capable AI.
Restrict the AI uses discussed until prior protections or permission are in place.
Simulated position: Allow the AI uses discussed with targeted accountability and protections.
Minimize restrictions on the AI uses discussed.
These interpretations keep his stated conditions. Benefits and harms can both be substantial. The ranges describe how we read his simulated answers, not statistical confidence intervals.
Simulated Assessment
Sources
Articles, interviews, and writings used to ground this simulated persona.
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